Market-implied odds of 95.3% against abolishing the Federal Reserve before 2027 reflect the institution’s deep statutory entrenchment under the 1913 Federal Reserve Act, which requires sweeping congressional repeal unlikely amid divided priorities and bipartisan acknowledgment of its monetary policy role. Recent developments, including leadership transitions such as Kevin Warsh’s 2026 chair appointment and ongoing focus on rate-path decisions amid stable Treasury yields, underscore continuity rather than dissolution. Stalled 2025 abolition bills with minimal cosponsorship further signal negligible legislative traction. Trader consensus draws from these structural barriers and the absence of executive or regulatory signals favoring elimination. Tail-risk scenarios remain narrow, limited to an unforeseen constitutional crisis or abrupt supermajority realignment capable of overriding entrenched checks within the short timeframe.