Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96% implied probability against the Federal Reserve being abolished before 2027, reflecting the central bank's entrenched role in U.S. monetary policy and the absence of any viable legislative momentum. Recent post-election developments, including President-elect Trump's statements emphasizing Fed oversight and potential Chair replacement rather than outright elimination, have reinforced this positioning amid historical precedents of enduring central bank independence despite periodic criticisms. No bills targeting abolition have advanced in Congress, with focus instead on fiscal priorities like tax cuts. Tail risks include an unforeseen radical policy pivot or bipartisan support for structural reform, though such scenarios face steep institutional and political barriers before the 2027 deadline.