The Federal Reserve's structural entrenchment under the 1913 Federal Reserve Act drives the 97.4% market-implied probability against abolition by end-2026. Recent congressional proposals, such as the Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act introduced by Rep. Thomas Massie and Sen. Mike Lee in March 2025, remain stalled without broad bipartisan backing or floor progress, reflecting the central bank's established role in monetary policy, Treasury market operations, and financial stability. Institutional inertia, legal hurdles to repeal, and ongoing focus on inflation targeting and rate paths further reinforce trader consensus. Tail-risk scenarios include an unprecedented fiscal or banking crisis prompting radical restructuring, though such developments would require extraordinary legislative alignment unlikely before year-end 2026.