The Federal Reserve's entrenched role in U.S. monetary policy, backed by statutory independence established in 1913 and reinforced through decades of crisis management, underpins the 95.3% market-implied probability against its abolition before 2027. Legislative barriers remain formidable, as any dissolution would require congressional majorities and presidential approval amid divided government, with no credible bills advancing in recent sessions. Recent economic data, including steady inflation moderation and labor market resilience, further affirm the institution's operational value, aligning trader consensus with historical precedent that major central bank reforms unfold over extended timelines rather than abrupt repeal. Tail-risk scenarios, such as an unprecedented constitutional crisis or radical policy realignment, could theoretically accelerate change but face prohibitive political and market-stability hurdles.