Alberta’s provincial referendum scheduled for October 19, 2026, centers on whether to begin a constitutional process toward independence from Canada rather than any path to U.S. statehood, with recent polling showing 64–74 percent of voters favoring continued Canadian membership. Support for joining the United States remains a fringe position at roughly 16–24 percent in surveys, well below levels needed to advance through provincial, federal Canadian, or U.S. constitutional requirements, treaty obligations with First Nations, or economic integration hurdles. High estimated transition costs, ranging from tens to hundreds of billions of dollars, and warnings from business groups about job and investment risks further anchor trader expectations. While U.S. officials have noted Alberta’s energy resources as a potential partner, no formal annexation framework or broad political momentum exists. Late shifts could theoretically arise from unforeseen policy disputes or external pressure, yet current polling trends, legal constraints, and the absence of organized campaigns for American statehood sustain the near-certain consensus against the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
2% 概率
$2,190,509 交易量
$2,190,509 交易量
2026-12-30
是
2% 概率
$2,190,509 交易量
$2,190,509 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Alberta’s provincial referendum scheduled for October 19, 2026, centers on whether to begin a constitutional process toward independence from Canada rather than any path to U.S. statehood, with recent polling showing 64–74 percent of voters favoring continued Canadian membership. Support for joining the United States remains a fringe position at roughly 16–24 percent in surveys, well below levels needed to advance through provincial, federal Canadian, or U.S. constitutional requirements, treaty obligations with First Nations, or economic integration hurdles. High estimated transition costs, ranging from tens to hundreds of billions of dollars, and warnings from business groups about job and investment risks further anchor trader expectations. While U.S. officials have noted Alberta’s energy resources as a potential partner, no formal annexation framework or broad political momentum exists. Late shifts could theoretically arise from unforeseen policy disputes or external pressure, yet current polling trends, legal constraints, and the absence of organized campaigns for American statehood sustain the near-certain consensus against the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
市场开放时间： Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
交易量
$2,190,509结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Alberta’s provincial referendum scheduled for October 19, 2026, centers on whether to begin a constitutional process toward independence from Canada rather than any path to U.S. statehood, with recent polling showing 64–74 percent of voters favoring continued Canadian membership. Support for joining the United States remains a fringe position at roughly 16–24 percent in surveys, well below levels needed to advance through provincial, federal Canadian, or U.S. constitutional requirements, treaty obligations with First Nations, or economic integration hurdles. High estimated transition costs, ranging from tens to hundreds of billions of dollars, and warnings from business groups about job and investment risks further anchor trader expectations. While U.S. officials have noted Alberta’s energy resources as a potential partner, no formal annexation framework or broad political momentum exists. Late shifts could theoretically arise from unforeseen policy disputes or external pressure, yet current polling trends, legal constraints, and the absence of organized campaigns for American statehood sustain the near-certain consensus against the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
交易量
$2,190,509结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETAlberta’s provincial referendum scheduled for October 19, 2026, centers on whether to begin a constitutional process toward independence from Canada rather than any path to U.S. statehood, with recent polling showing 64–74 percent of voters favoring continued Canadian membership. Support for joining the United States remains a fringe position at roughly 16–24 percent in surveys, well below levels needed to advance through provincial, federal Canadian, or U.S. constitutional requirements, treaty obligations with First Nations, or economic integration hurdles. High estimated transition costs, ranging from tens to hundreds of billions of dollars, and warnings from business groups about job and investment risks further anchor trader expectations. While U.S. officials have noted Alberta’s energy resources as a potential partner, no formal annexation framework or broad political momentum exists. Late shifts could theoretically arise from unforeseen policy disputes or external pressure, yet current polling trends, legal constraints, and the absence of organized campaigns for American statehood sustain the near-certain consensus against the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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