This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, driven by his high-profile role as HHS Secretary in the Trump administration and the momentum of his Make America Healthy Again movement, which gained traction after his March 2026 family confirmation of presidential ambitions and ongoing health policy initiatives.** Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 37%, buoyed by his status as heir apparent and early 2026 endorsements despite ambiguous signals on a run, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 25% share reflects a recent April surge from CPAC straw poll wins and diplomatic visibility. Though polls favor Vance, the market's skin-in-the-game pricing highlights RFK Jr.'s crossover appeal amid 2026 midterm positioning, with primaries not until 2028.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
**Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, driven by his high-profile role as HHS Secretary in the Trump administration and the momentum of his Make America Healthy Again movement, which gained traction after his March 2026 family confirmation of presidential ambitions and ongoing health policy initiatives.** Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 37%, buoyed by his status as heir apparent and early 2026 endorsements despite ambiguous signals on a run, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 25% share reflects a recent April surge from CPAC straw poll wins and diplomatic visibility. Though polls favor Vance, the market's skin-in-the-game pricing highlights RFK Jr.'s crossover appeal amid 2026 midterm positioning, with primaries not until 2028.
Reports indicate Rubio has overtaken Gavin Newsom and JD Vance in some prediction markets as the favorite to win the 2028 Republican nomination, reflecting his rising momentum
Marco Rubio rises to 25%4%
Reports indicate Rubio has overtaken Gavin Newsom and JD Vance in some prediction markets as the favorite to win the 2028 Republican nomination, reflecting his rising momentum
May 6 2026
Rubio meets with Pope Leo XIV in Vatican amid 2028 presidential buzz, signaling diplomatic prominence and strengthening his image as a leading GOP contender
Marco Rubio rises to 25%4%
Rubio meets with Pope Leo XIV in Vatican amid 2028 presidential buzz, signaling diplomatic prominence and strengthening his image as a leading GOP contender
May 5 2026
Rubio fills in as White House press secretary, gaining media attention and demonstrating leadership, further elevating his profile against rivals like JD Vance
Marco Rubio rises to 25%4%
Rubio fills in as White House press secretary, gaining media attention and demonstrating leadership, further elevating his profile against rivals like JD Vance
Apr 29 2026
Senate Judiciary Committee hearing highlights constitutional questions about Trump’s eligibility for a third term under the 22nd Amendment, reinforcing legal barriers to a 2028
Donald Trump dips to 2%1%
Senate Judiciary Committee hearing highlights constitutional questions about Trump’s eligibility for a third term under the 22nd Amendment, reinforcing legal barriers to a 2028 run and depressing market odds
Apr 24 2026
POLITICO reports White House insiders increasingly see Rubio as a serious 2028 contender due to his savvy handling of foreign conflicts and political risks, raising market
POLITICO reports White House insiders increasingly see Rubio as a serious 2028 contender due to his savvy handling of foreign conflicts and political risks, raising market confidence
Apr 23 2026
Tucker Carlson publicly expresses regret and says he is "tormented" by his past support for Donald Trump, marking a notable break from Trumpism and increasing speculation about his independent political path
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%2%
- [2026-04] Tucker Carlson urges officials to reject Trump’s orders related to the Iran conflict, positioning himself as a prominent critic of U.S. military escalation and differentiating his stance within the GOP
Apr 11 2026
JD Vance leads U.S. delegation in Islamabad for Iran ceasefire talks
J.D. Vance dips to 37%2%
Vance’s high-profile but ultimately inconclusive diplomatic efforts in Iran were seen as a mixed foreign policy performance, contributing to a modest
Winning the CPAC straw poll for the second consecutive year signaled strong conservative support, though the market
Mar 24 2026
Marco Rubio attends G7 foreign ministers meeting in France discussing Iran, Strait of Hormuz, and Ukraine, highlighting his foreign policy role and increasing his stature as a
Marco Rubio rises to 17%4%
Marco Rubio attends G7 foreign ministers meeting in France discussing Iran, Strait of Hormuz, and Ukraine, highlighting his foreign policy role and increasing his stature as a potential 2028 candidate
Mar 19 2026
The New York Times reports that Trump and the Republican Party engaged in aggressive political actions against Democrats, contributing to negative public perception and declining
Donald Trump dips to 2%1%
The New York Times reports that Trump and the Republican Party engaged in aggressive political actions against Democrats, contributing to negative public perception and declining support within the GOP
Mar 6 2026
Axios reports Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene floated a White House bid for Tucker Carlson, citing polling showing strong Republican support, which lifted his market
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%2%
Axios reports Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene floated a White House bid for Tucker Carlson, citing polling showing strong Republican support, which lifted his market
Jan 3 2026
Trump administration announces successful military operation in Venezuela capturing Nicolas Maduro, with Marco Rubio prominently involved, boosting Rubio's profile and nomination
Marco Rubio jumps to 15%8%
Trump administration announces successful military operation in Venezuela capturing Nicolas Maduro, with Marco Rubio prominently involved, boosting Rubio's profile and nomination chances
Dec 21 2025
JD Vance receives endorsement from Turning Point USA leader Erika Kirk at AmericaFest conference
J.D. Vance jumps to 59%5%
This endorsement from a major conservative grassroots organization bolstered Vance’s standing among the right-wing base, supporting a
Dec 19 2025
Erika Kirk, leader of Turning Point USA, publicly endorses JD Vance at the annual AmericaFest conference, solidifying Vance's early frontrunner status and keeping Rubio's odds
Erika Kirk, leader of Turning Point USA, publicly endorses JD Vance at the annual AmericaFest conference, solidifying Vance's early frontrunner status and keeping Rubio's odds lower at this time
Dec 16 2025
Donald Trump Jr. publicly announces his engagement to socialite Bettina Anderson at a White House holiday party, shifting public focus to his personal life and confirming he is
Donald Trump Jr. dips to 3%2%
Donald Trump Jr. publicly announces his engagement to socialite Bettina Anderson at a White House holiday party, shifting public focus to his personal life and confirming he is not pursuing the nomination
Dec 2 2025
Trump reiterates he won’t be the 2028 nominee and predicts a successor from his administration, further reducing his chances and shifting market expectations
Donald Trump dips to 3%2%
Trump reiterates he won’t be the 2028 nominee and predicts a successor from his administration, further reducing his chances and shifting market expectations
Dec 1 2025
President Trump publicly states he will not be the Republican nominee for the 2028 Presidential Election, clarifying his non-candidacy and causing a significant drop in market
Donald Trump dips to 3%2%
President Trump publicly states he will not be the Republican nominee for the 2028 Presidential Election, clarifying his non-candidacy and causing a significant drop in market confidence
Oct 30 2025
JD Vance holds a press conference in Washington, DC, reinforcing his role in the Trump administration
J.D. Vance rises to 57%2%
Vance's active public engagement and association with Trump’s agenda maintained market confidence, contributing to a steady
Oct 28 2025
Tucker Carlson hosts white nationalist commentator Nick Fuentes on his podcast, sparking condemnation from Republican leaders like Ted Cruz and causing a dip in his market
Tucker Carlson dips to 2%1%
Tucker Carlson hosts white nationalist commentator Nick Fuentes on his podcast, sparking condemnation from Republican leaders like Ted Cruz and causing a dip in his market
Sep 21 2025
Tucker Carlson speaks at a memorial for Charlie Kirk, signaling his continued influence in conservative circles and raising speculation about his political ambitions
Tucker Carlson rises to 4%1%
Tucker Carlson speaks at a memorial for Charlie Kirk, signaling his continued influence in conservative circles and raising speculation about his political ambitions
Aug 26 2025
Polymarket announces the investment from 1789 Capital and Trump Jr.’s advisory role, reinforcing his image as a venture‑capital figure and keeping the nominee probability low
Donald Trump Jr. dips to 8%4%
Polymarket announces the investment from 1789 Capital and Trump Jr.’s advisory role, reinforcing his image as a venture‑capital figure and keeping the nominee probability low
Jul 26 2025
Senate investigators begin probing Trump Jr.’s board seat at telehealth firm BlinkRx, highlighting potential legal and ethical issues and further dampening speculation about a
Donald Trump Jr. drops to 12%8%
Senate investigators begin probing Trump Jr.’s board seat at telehealth firm BlinkRx, highlighting potential legal and ethical issues and further dampening speculation about a presidential bid
Jul 22 2025
JD Vance named Vice President under Donald Trump, boosting his profile as a leading 2028 GOP contender
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Vance's selection as Vice President in mid-2025 significantly raised his visibility and perceived viability as a future Republican nominee, causing a sharp market
Jul 18 2025
President Donald Trump endorses JD Vance as the ‘most likely’ Republican nominee in 2028, signaling a step back from his own candidacy and boosting Vance’s profile
Donald Trump drops to 3%12%
President Donald Trump endorses JD Vance as the ‘most likely’ Republican nominee in 2028, signaling a step back from his own candidacy and boosting Vance’s profile
Jul 15 2025
Trump Jr. joins the advisory board of prediction‑market platform Polymarket after his venture‑capital firm 1789 Capital invests, drawing media attention to his business activities
Donald Trump Jr. drops to 20%10%
Trump Jr. joins the advisory board of prediction‑market platform Polymarket after his venture‑capital firm 1789 Capital invests, drawing media attention to his business activities rather than a political campaign
Feb 14 2025
Donald Trump Jr. accused of killing a protected ruddy shelduck while hunting in Italy, sparking wildlife‑conservation criticism and raising doubts about his electability
Donald Trump Jr. drops to 30%5%
Donald Trump Jr. accused of killing a protected ruddy shelduck while hunting in Italy, sparking wildlife‑conservation criticism and raising doubts about his electability
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, driven by his high-profile role as HHS Secretary in the Trump administration and the momentum of his Make America Healthy Again movement, which gained traction after his March 2026 family confirmation of presidential ambitions and ongoing health policy initiatives.** Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 37%, buoyed by his status as heir apparent and early 2026 endorsements despite ambiguous signals on a run, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 25% share reflects a recent April surge from CPAC straw poll wins and diplomatic visibility. Though polls favor Vance, the market's skin-in-the-game pricing highlights RFK Jr.'s crossover appeal amid 2026 midterm positioning, with primaries not until 2028.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
**Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, driven by his high-profile role as HHS Secretary in the Trump administration and the momentum of his Make America Healthy Again movement, which gained traction after his March 2026 family confirmation of presidential ambitions and ongoing health policy initiatives.** Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 37%, buoyed by his status as heir apparent and early 2026 endorsements despite ambiguous signals on a run, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 25% share reflects a recent April surge from CPAC straw poll wins and diplomatic visibility. Though polls favor Vance, the market's skin-in-the-game pricing highlights RFK Jr.'s crossover appeal amid 2026 midterm positioning, with primaries not until 2028.
Reports indicate Rubio has overtaken Gavin Newsom and JD Vance in some prediction markets as the favorite to win the 2028 Republican nomination, reflecting his rising momentum
Marco Rubio rises to 25%4%
Reports indicate Rubio has overtaken Gavin Newsom and JD Vance in some prediction markets as the favorite to win the 2028 Republican nomination, reflecting his rising momentum
May 6 2026
Rubio meets with Pope Leo XIV in Vatican amid 2028 presidential buzz, signaling diplomatic prominence and strengthening his image as a leading GOP contender
Marco Rubio rises to 25%4%
Rubio meets with Pope Leo XIV in Vatican amid 2028 presidential buzz, signaling diplomatic prominence and strengthening his image as a leading GOP contender
May 5 2026
Rubio fills in as White House press secretary, gaining media attention and demonstrating leadership, further elevating his profile against rivals like JD Vance
Marco Rubio rises to 25%4%
Rubio fills in as White House press secretary, gaining media attention and demonstrating leadership, further elevating his profile against rivals like JD Vance
Apr 29 2026
Senate Judiciary Committee hearing highlights constitutional questions about Trump’s eligibility for a third term under the 22nd Amendment, reinforcing legal barriers to a 2028
Donald Trump dips to 2%1%
Senate Judiciary Committee hearing highlights constitutional questions about Trump’s eligibility for a third term under the 22nd Amendment, reinforcing legal barriers to a 2028 run and depressing market odds
Apr 24 2026
POLITICO reports White House insiders increasingly see Rubio as a serious 2028 contender due to his savvy handling of foreign conflicts and political risks, raising market
POLITICO reports White House insiders increasingly see Rubio as a serious 2028 contender due to his savvy handling of foreign conflicts and political risks, raising market confidence
Apr 23 2026
Tucker Carlson publicly expresses regret and says he is "tormented" by his past support for Donald Trump, marking a notable break from Trumpism and increasing speculation about his independent political path
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%2%
- [2026-04] Tucker Carlson urges officials to reject Trump’s orders related to the Iran conflict, positioning himself as a prominent critic of U.S. military escalation and differentiating his stance within the GOP
Apr 11 2026
JD Vance leads U.S. delegation in Islamabad for Iran ceasefire talks
J.D. Vance dips to 37%2%
Vance’s high-profile but ultimately inconclusive diplomatic efforts in Iran were seen as a mixed foreign policy performance, contributing to a modest
Winning the CPAC straw poll for the second consecutive year signaled strong conservative support, though the market
Mar 24 2026
Marco Rubio attends G7 foreign ministers meeting in France discussing Iran, Strait of Hormuz, and Ukraine, highlighting his foreign policy role and increasing his stature as a
Marco Rubio rises to 17%4%
Marco Rubio attends G7 foreign ministers meeting in France discussing Iran, Strait of Hormuz, and Ukraine, highlighting his foreign policy role and increasing his stature as a potential 2028 candidate
Mar 19 2026
The New York Times reports that Trump and the Republican Party engaged in aggressive political actions against Democrats, contributing to negative public perception and declining
Donald Trump dips to 2%1%
The New York Times reports that Trump and the Republican Party engaged in aggressive political actions against Democrats, contributing to negative public perception and declining support within the GOP
Mar 6 2026
Axios reports Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene floated a White House bid for Tucker Carlson, citing polling showing strong Republican support, which lifted his market
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%2%
Axios reports Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene floated a White House bid for Tucker Carlson, citing polling showing strong Republican support, which lifted his market
Jan 3 2026
Trump administration announces successful military operation in Venezuela capturing Nicolas Maduro, with Marco Rubio prominently involved, boosting Rubio's profile and nomination
Marco Rubio jumps to 15%8%
Trump administration announces successful military operation in Venezuela capturing Nicolas Maduro, with Marco Rubio prominently involved, boosting Rubio's profile and nomination chances
Dec 21 2025
JD Vance receives endorsement from Turning Point USA leader Erika Kirk at AmericaFest conference
J.D. Vance jumps to 59%5%
This endorsement from a major conservative grassroots organization bolstered Vance’s standing among the right-wing base, supporting a
Dec 19 2025
Erika Kirk, leader of Turning Point USA, publicly endorses JD Vance at the annual AmericaFest conference, solidifying Vance's early frontrunner status and keeping Rubio's odds
Erika Kirk, leader of Turning Point USA, publicly endorses JD Vance at the annual AmericaFest conference, solidifying Vance's early frontrunner status and keeping Rubio's odds lower at this time
Dec 16 2025
Donald Trump Jr. publicly announces his engagement to socialite Bettina Anderson at a White House holiday party, shifting public focus to his personal life and confirming he is
Donald Trump Jr. dips to 3%2%
Donald Trump Jr. publicly announces his engagement to socialite Bettina Anderson at a White House holiday party, shifting public focus to his personal life and confirming he is not pursuing the nomination
Dec 2 2025
Trump reiterates he won’t be the 2028 nominee and predicts a successor from his administration, further reducing his chances and shifting market expectations
Donald Trump dips to 3%2%
Trump reiterates he won’t be the 2028 nominee and predicts a successor from his administration, further reducing his chances and shifting market expectations
Dec 1 2025
President Trump publicly states he will not be the Republican nominee for the 2028 Presidential Election, clarifying his non-candidacy and causing a significant drop in market
Donald Trump dips to 3%2%
President Trump publicly states he will not be the Republican nominee for the 2028 Presidential Election, clarifying his non-candidacy and causing a significant drop in market confidence
Oct 30 2025
JD Vance holds a press conference in Washington, DC, reinforcing his role in the Trump administration
J.D. Vance rises to 57%2%
Vance's active public engagement and association with Trump’s agenda maintained market confidence, contributing to a steady
Oct 28 2025
Tucker Carlson hosts white nationalist commentator Nick Fuentes on his podcast, sparking condemnation from Republican leaders like Ted Cruz and causing a dip in his market
Tucker Carlson dips to 2%1%
Tucker Carlson hosts white nationalist commentator Nick Fuentes on his podcast, sparking condemnation from Republican leaders like Ted Cruz and causing a dip in his market
Sep 21 2025
Tucker Carlson speaks at a memorial for Charlie Kirk, signaling his continued influence in conservative circles and raising speculation about his political ambitions
Tucker Carlson rises to 4%1%
Tucker Carlson speaks at a memorial for Charlie Kirk, signaling his continued influence in conservative circles and raising speculation about his political ambitions
Aug 26 2025
Polymarket announces the investment from 1789 Capital and Trump Jr.’s advisory role, reinforcing his image as a venture‑capital figure and keeping the nominee probability low
Donald Trump Jr. dips to 8%4%
Polymarket announces the investment from 1789 Capital and Trump Jr.’s advisory role, reinforcing his image as a venture‑capital figure and keeping the nominee probability low
Jul 26 2025
Senate investigators begin probing Trump Jr.’s board seat at telehealth firm BlinkRx, highlighting potential legal and ethical issues and further dampening speculation about a
Donald Trump Jr. drops to 12%8%
Senate investigators begin probing Trump Jr.’s board seat at telehealth firm BlinkRx, highlighting potential legal and ethical issues and further dampening speculation about a presidential bid
Jul 22 2025
JD Vance named Vice President under Donald Trump, boosting his profile as a leading 2028 GOP contender
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Vance's selection as Vice President in mid-2025 significantly raised his visibility and perceived viability as a future Republican nominee, causing a sharp market
Jul 18 2025
President Donald Trump endorses JD Vance as the ‘most likely’ Republican nominee in 2028, signaling a step back from his own candidacy and boosting Vance’s profile
Donald Trump drops to 3%12%
President Donald Trump endorses JD Vance as the ‘most likely’ Republican nominee in 2028, signaling a step back from his own candidacy and boosting Vance’s profile
Jul 15 2025
Trump Jr. joins the advisory board of prediction‑market platform Polymarket after his venture‑capital firm 1789 Capital invests, drawing media attention to his business activities
Donald Trump Jr. drops to 20%10%
Trump Jr. joins the advisory board of prediction‑market platform Polymarket after his venture‑capital firm 1789 Capital invests, drawing media attention to his business activities rather than a political campaign
Feb 14 2025
Donald Trump Jr. accused of killing a protected ruddy shelduck while hunting in Italy, sparking wildlife‑conservation criticism and raising doubts about his electability
Donald Trump Jr. drops to 30%5%
Donald Trump Jr. accused of killing a protected ruddy shelduck while hunting in Italy, sparking wildlife‑conservation criticism and raising doubts about his electability
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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