Incumbent Mayor Ras Baraka holds a commanding trader consensus at 89% implied probability of re-election in Newark's May 12 municipal election, driven by his decade-plus tenure, recent State of the City address touting record-low homicide rates since the 1950s, and a fragmented field of eight challengers certified after the February 26 filing deadline. None of the opponents—Nasheedah Singleton, Douglas Davis, Sheila Montague, and others—have mounted credible campaigns or garnered notable endorsements, per local reporting, reinforcing Baraka's path to a fourth term absent scandals or turnout surges. Recent re-election announcement and denial of involvement in a donor-linked $500 million school construction deal have not shifted sentiment, with the wisdom of crowds pricing in low upset risk ahead of early voting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Ras Baraka 90%
Nasheedah Singleton 3.5%
Douglas Davis 3.2%
Sheila Montague 2.9%
Ras Baraka
90%
Nasheedah Singleton
4%
Douglas Davis
3%
Sheila Montague
3%
Jhamar Youngblood
2%
Debra Salters
2%
Tanisha Garner
1%
Noble Milton
<1%
Asha Coates-Hamlet
<1%
Louis Shockley
<1%
Ras Baraka 90%
Nasheedah Singleton 3.5%
Douglas Davis 3.2%
Sheila Montague 2.9%
Ras Baraka
90%
Nasheedah Singleton
4%
Douglas Davis
3%
Sheila Montague
3%
Jhamar Youngblood
2%
Debra Salters
2%
Tanisha Garner
1%
Noble Milton
<1%
Asha Coates-Hamlet
<1%
Louis Shockley
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Newark as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Newark.
市场开放时间： Mar 10, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Newark as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Newark.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Mayor Ras Baraka holds a commanding trader consensus at 89% implied probability of re-election in Newark's May 12 municipal election, driven by his decade-plus tenure, recent State of the City address touting record-low homicide rates since the 1950s, and a fragmented field of eight challengers certified after the February 26 filing deadline. None of the opponents—Nasheedah Singleton, Douglas Davis, Sheila Montague, and others—have mounted credible campaigns or garnered notable endorsements, per local reporting, reinforcing Baraka's path to a fourth term absent scandals or turnout surges. Recent re-election announcement and denial of involvement in a donor-linked $500 million school construction deal have not shifted sentiment, with the wisdom of crowds pricing in low upset risk ahead of early voting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题