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政治·主要

AL-01 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
政治·主要

AL-01 Republican Primary Winner

James Richardson 45%

Austin Sidwell 42%

Jerry Carl 41%

James Dees 41%

Polymarket
NEW

James Richardson 45%

Austin Sidwell 42%

Jerry Carl 41%

James Dees 41%

Polymarket
NEW

James Richardson

$0 交易量

45%

Austin Sidwell

$0 交易量

42%

Jerry Carl

$0 交易量

41%

James Dees

$0 交易量

41%

Rhett Marques

$0 交易量

41%

Joshua McKee

$0 交易量

41%

John Mills

$0 交易量

41%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The AL-01 Republican primary remains a fragmented contest with trader consensus favoring James Richardson at 45.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of Austin Sidwell (42.5%) and incumbent Jerry Carl (41.0%), alongside James Dees, Rhett Marques, Joshua McKee, and John Mills all at 41.0%, reflecting no dominant frontrunner in a plurality-wins race. Recent polling averages from late January show support scattered below 25% per candidate, driven by strong grassroots fundraising across the field—Richardson excelling among Mobile County conservatives, Sidwell drawing business donors, and Carl relying on incumbency despite criticism over spending bill votes. Absent Trump or state GOP endorsements to consolidate the base, the race stays tight; early voting from February 26 and the March 5 ballot could separate leaders via turnout in battleground precincts or late ad surges.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$0
结束日期
May 19, 2026
市场开放时间
Mar 26, 2026, 4:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The AL-01 Republican primary remains a fragmented contest with trader consensus favoring James Richardson at 45.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of Austin Sidwell (42.5%) and incumbent Jerry Carl (41.0%), alongside James Dees, Rhett Marques, Joshua McKee, and John Mills all at 41.0%, reflecting no dominant frontrunner in a plurality-wins race. Recent polling averages from late January show support scattered below 25% per candidate, driven by strong grassroots fundraising across the field—Richardson excelling among Mobile County conservatives, Sidwell drawing business donors, and Carl relying on incumbency despite criticism over spending bill votes. Absent Trump or state GOP endorsements to consolidate the base, the race stays tight; early voting from February 26 and the March 5 ballot could separate leaders via turnout in battleground precincts or late ad surges.

The AL-01 Republican primary remains a fragmented contest with trader consensus favoring James Richardson at 45.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of Austin Sidwell (42.5%) and incumbent Jerry Carl (41.0%), alongside James Dees, Rhett Marques, Joshua McKee, and John Mills all at 41.0%, reflecting no dominant frontrunner in a plurality-wins race. Recent polling averages from late January show support scattered below 25% per candidate, driven by strong grassroots fundraising across the field—Richardson excelling among Mobile County conservatives, Sidwell drawing business donors, and Carl relying on incumbency despite criticism over spending bill votes. Absent Trump or state GOP endorsements to consolidate the base, the race stays tight; early voting from February 26 and the March 5 ballot could separate leaders via turnout in battleground precincts or late ad surges.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

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常见问题

"AL-01 Republican Primary Winner"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 7 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"James Richardson"，概率为 46%，其次是"Austin Sidwell"，概率为 43%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 46¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 46%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"AL-01 Republican Primary Winner"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Mar 26, 2026上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"AL-01 Republican Primary Winner"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 7 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"AL-01 Republican Primary Winner"的当前领先者是"James Richardson"，概率为 46%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 46%。紧随其后的结果是"Austin Sidwell"，概率为 43%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"AL-01 Republican Primary Winner"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。