Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a trader consensus lead over incumbent Senator John Cornyn at 59.5% implied probability in the Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff set for May 26, reflecting recent polls showing Paxton ahead by 8-16 points among GOP primary voters. The March 3 primary forced this head-to-head after neither secured a majority, with Paxton consolidating support from Trump-aligned conservatives critical of Cornyn's establishment ties and bipartisan deals, while Cornyn leverages superior fundraising despite lower favorability ratings. Absent a Trump endorsement, Paxton's momentum from base enthusiasm and attack ads drives the shift, though incumbency advantages and turnout dynamics could narrow the gap before early voting begins.