Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects strong Democratic advantages in the House driven by consistent generic ballot leads of 3–6 points in recent polls from Emerson, Morning Consult, and trackers like Race to the White House, alongside Cook Political Report shifting 18 competitive districts toward Democrats in January. Historical midterm patterns disfavor President Trump's Republicans, amplified by his approval ratings hitting new lows amid affordability concerns, Latino voter shifts, and backlash to Iran tensions. Senate control tilts Republican due to the map favoring red-state defenses, though Democrats edge polls in critical races like those highlighted by Newsweek two days ago, yielding high probabilities for Democratic sweeps or split government with a Democratic House. Primaries in swing states and economic data loom as key catalysts through November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Democrats Sweep 49%
R 参议院，D 众议院 37%
分组项标题：共和党横扫 15%
民主党参议院、共和党众议院 <1%
$4,214,652 交易量
$4,214,652 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
赚 4% 收益
Democrats Sweep
49%
民主党参议院、共和党众议院
1%
R 参议院，D 众议院
37%
分组项标题：共和党横扫
15%
分组项标题：其他
<1%
Democrats Sweep 49%
R 参议院，D 众议院 37%
分组项标题：共和党横扫 15%
民主党参议院、共和党众议院 <1%
$4,214,652 交易量
$4,214,652 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
赚 4% 收益
Democrats Sweep
$1,135,472 交易量
49%
民主党参议院、共和党众议院
$593,081 交易量
1%
R 参议院，D 众议院
$800,523 交易量
37%
分组项标题：共和党横扫
$882,718 交易量
15%
分组项标题：其他
$802,858 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects strong Democratic advantages in the House driven by consistent generic ballot leads of 3–6 points in recent polls from Emerson, Morning Consult, and trackers like Race to the White House, alongside Cook Political Report shifting 18 competitive districts toward Democrats in January. Historical midterm patterns disfavor President Trump's Republicans, amplified by his approval ratings hitting new lows amid affordability concerns, Latino voter shifts, and backlash to Iran tensions. Senate control tilts Republican due to the map favoring red-state defenses, though Democrats edge polls in critical races like those highlighted by Newsweek two days ago, yielding high probabilities for Democratic sweeps or split government with a Democratic House. Primaries in swing states and economic data loom as key catalysts through November.
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Jul 11, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
交易量
$4,214,652结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jul 11, 2025, 5:04 PM ETWe anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects strong Democratic advantages in the House driven by consistent generic ballot leads of 3–6 points in recent polls from Emerson, Morning Consult, and trackers like Race to the White House, alongside Cook Political Report shifting 18 competitive districts toward Democrats in January. Historical midterm patterns disfavor President Trump's Republicans, amplified by his approval ratings hitting new lows amid affordability concerns, Latino voter shifts, and backlash to Iran tensions. Senate control tilts Republican due to the map favoring red-state defenses, though Democrats edge polls in critical races like those highlighted by Newsweek two days ago, yielding high probabilities for Democratic sweeps or split government with a Democratic House. Primaries in swing states and economic data loom as key catalysts through November.
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$4,214,652结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jul 11, 2025, 5:04 PM ETWe anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects strong Democratic advantages in the House driven by consistent generic ballot leads of 3–6 points in recent polls from Emerson, Morning Consult, and trackers like Race to the White House, alongside Cook Political Report shifting 18 competitive districts toward Democrats in January. Historical midterm patterns disfavor President Trump's Republicans, amplified by his approval ratings hitting new lows amid affordability concerns, Latino voter shifts, and backlash to Iran tensions. Senate control tilts Republican due to the map favoring red-state defenses, though Democrats edge polls in critical races like those highlighted by Newsweek two days ago, yielding high probabilities for Democratic sweeps or split government with a Democratic House. Primaries in swing states and economic data loom as key catalysts through November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题