Former state Sen. Tom Begich holds trader consensus at 25% implied probability to win Alaska's open 2026 gubernatorial race, mirroring a recent Alaska Survey Research poll showing him ahead at 24% in an 18-way hypothetical field lacking incumbent Gov. Mike Dunleavy, whose re-election bid remains undeclared amid tepid approval ratings. Republicans Nancy Dahlstrom (ex-lieutenant governor, 10%), Kenai Mayor Treg Taylor (11%), and Anchorage Mayor David Bronson (4%) trail, differentiated by establishment ties, local executive experience, and conservative appeal, while Democrat Begich benefits from moderate positioning and family name recognition in top-four primary and ranked-choice general election dynamics. Support consolidation may pivot on Q4 fundraising reports, party endorsements, additional high-profile entrants like Sen. Lisa Murkowski (6%), and Dunleavy's timeline, ahead of the August 2026 primary.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于汤姆·贝吉奇 25%
伯纳黛特·威尔逊 14%
南希·达尔斯特伦姆 10%
埃德娜·德弗里斯 9.1%
$302,863 交易量
$302,863 交易量
汤姆·贝吉奇
25%
伯纳黛特·威尔逊
14%
南希·达尔斯特伦姆
10%
埃德娜·德弗里斯
8%
特雷格·泰勒
11%
丽莎·穆尔科斯基
6%
雪莉·休斯
5%
詹姆斯·帕金
4%
大卫·布朗森
4%
玛丽·佩尔托拉
3%
Click Bishop
2%
马特·海拉拉
1%
亚当·克拉姆
1%
汤姆·贝吉奇 25%
伯纳黛特·威尔逊 14%
南希·达尔斯特伦姆 10%
埃德娜·德弗里斯 9.1%
$302,863 交易量
$302,863 交易量
汤姆·贝吉奇
25%
伯纳黛特·威尔逊
14%
南希·达尔斯特伦姆
10%
埃德娜·德弗里斯
8%
特雷格·泰勒
11%
丽莎·穆尔科斯基
6%
雪莉·休斯
5%
詹姆斯·帕金
4%
大卫·布朗森
4%
玛丽·佩尔托拉
3%
Click Bishop
2%
马特·海拉拉
1%
亚当·克拉姆
1%
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Former state Sen. Tom Begich holds trader consensus at 25% implied probability to win Alaska's open 2026 gubernatorial race, mirroring a recent Alaska Survey Research poll showing him ahead at 24% in an 18-way hypothetical field lacking incumbent Gov. Mike Dunleavy, whose re-election bid remains undeclared amid tepid approval ratings. Republicans Nancy Dahlstrom (ex-lieutenant governor, 10%), Kenai Mayor Treg Taylor (11%), and Anchorage Mayor David Bronson (4%) trail, differentiated by establishment ties, local executive experience, and conservative appeal, while Democrat Begich benefits from moderate positioning and family name recognition in top-four primary and ranked-choice general election dynamics. Support consolidation may pivot on Q4 fundraising reports, party endorsements, additional high-profile entrants like Sen. Lisa Murkowski (6%), and Dunleavy's timeline, ahead of the August 2026 primary.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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