Virginia traders imply a 71.5% probability that voters will approve a constitutional amendment on the April 21 special election, enabling the Democratic-controlled General Assembly to implement a new congressional map for the 2026 midterms. The legislature passed HB29 in February, proposing district lines that shift four Republican-held seats toward Democrats, following a state Supreme Court ruling clearing the referendum path after a lower court block. Early polls like Christopher Newport University's January survey showed 51% support, but recent data reveals stronger early voting turnout in GOP-leaning areas since March 6, alongside intense ad campaigns and Democratic fundraising advantages, signaling a competitive low-turnout contest that tempers certainty on approval and new map adoption.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
是
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
The Virginia General Assembly submitted a constitutional amendment to voters for a statewide referendum which, if passed, would allow new congressional districts, drawn in House Bill 29 (HB 29), to be used in the upcoming US House of Representatives midterm elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 are used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The release of official election materials from the State of Virginia, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, demonstrating that the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 definitively will or will not be used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections will be sufficient to resolve this market.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the State of Virginia and a consensus of credible reporting.Virginia traders imply a 71.5% probability that voters will approve a constitutional amendment on the April 21 special election, enabling the Democratic-controlled General Assembly to implement a new congressional map for the 2026 midterms. The legislature passed HB29 in February, proposing district lines that shift four Republican-held seats toward Democrats, following a state Supreme Court ruling clearing the referendum path after a lower court block. Early polls like Christopher Newport University's January survey showed 51% support, but recent data reveals stronger early voting turnout in GOP-leaning areas since March 6, alongside intense ad campaigns and Democratic fundraising advantages, signaling a competitive low-turnout contest that tempers certainty on approval and new map adoption.
The Virginia General Assembly submitted a constitutional amendment to voters for a statewide referendum which, if passed, would allow new congressional districts, drawn in House Bill 29 (HB 29), to be used in the upcoming US House of Representatives midterm elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 are used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The release of official election materials from the State of Virginia, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, demonstrating that the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 definitively will or will not be used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections will be sufficient to resolve this market.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the State of Virginia and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 are used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The release of official election materials from the State of Virginia, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, demonstrating that the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 definitively will or will not be used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections will be sufficient to resolve this market.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the State of Virginia and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 3, 2026, 2:53 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 3, 2026, 2:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Virginia General Assembly submitted a constitutional amendment to voters for a statewide referendum which, if passed, would allow new congressional districts, drawn in House Bill 29 (HB 29), to be used in the upcoming US House of Representatives midterm elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 are used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The release of official election materials from the State of Virginia, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, demonstrating that the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 definitively will or will not be used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections will be sufficient to resolve this market.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the State of Virginia and a consensus of credible reporting.Virginia traders imply a 71.5% probability that voters will approve a constitutional amendment on the April 21 special election, enabling the Democratic-controlled General Assembly to implement a new congressional map for the 2026 midterms. The legislature passed HB29 in February, proposing district lines that shift four Republican-held seats toward Democrats, following a state Supreme Court ruling clearing the referendum path after a lower court block. Early polls like Christopher Newport University's January survey showed 51% support, but recent data reveals stronger early voting turnout in GOP-leaning areas since March 6, alongside intense ad campaigns and Democratic fundraising advantages, signaling a competitive low-turnout contest that tempers certainty on approval and new map adoption.
The Virginia General Assembly submitted a constitutional amendment to voters for a statewide referendum which, if passed, would allow new congressional districts, drawn in House Bill 29 (HB 29), to be used in the upcoming US House of Representatives midterm elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 are used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The release of official election materials from the State of Virginia, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, demonstrating that the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 definitively will or will not be used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections will be sufficient to resolve this market.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the State of Virginia and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 are used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The release of official election materials from the State of Virginia, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, demonstrating that the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 definitively will or will not be used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections will be sufficient to resolve this market.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the State of Virginia and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 3, 2026, 2:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Virginia traders imply a 71.5% probability that voters will approve a constitutional amendment on the April 21 special election, enabling the Democratic-controlled General Assembly to implement a new congressional map for the 2026 midterms. The legislature passed HB29 in February, proposing district lines that shift four Republican-held seats toward Democrats, following a state Supreme Court ruling clearing the referendum path after a lower court block. Early polls like Christopher Newport University's January survey showed 51% support, but recent data reveals stronger early voting turnout in GOP-leaning areas since March 6, alongside intense ad campaigns and Democratic fundraising advantages, signaling a competitive low-turnout contest that tempers certainty on approval and new map adoption.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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