Redistricting has reshaped Virginia's 1st Congressional District into a narrow contest rated Lean Republican by multiple forecasters, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+3 and a 2024 presidential margin of Trump plus five points. Incumbent Republican Rob Wittman benefits from name recognition and substantial fundraising, yet the map's inclusion of Richmond suburbs and overall competitiveness sustain trader expectations of a close general election outcome on November 3. Multiple Democratic primary contenders on the August 4 ballot create uncertainty over the eventual nominee and any late momentum shifts. Limited public polling and national midterm dynamics further contribute to the slim 51.5-48.0 implied probability spread.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$18,280 交易量
$18,280 交易量
2026-11-04
共和党
48%
民主党
48%
$18,280 交易量
$18,280 交易量
2026-11-04
共和党
$1,818 交易量
48%
民主党
$16,462 交易量
48%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting has reshaped Virginia's 1st Congressional District into a narrow contest rated Lean Republican by multiple forecasters, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+3 and a 2024 presidential margin of Trump plus five points. Incumbent Republican Rob Wittman benefits from name recognition and substantial fundraising, yet the map's inclusion of Richmond suburbs and overall competitiveness sustain trader expectations of a close general election outcome on November 3. Multiple Democratic primary contenders on the August 4 ballot create uncertainty over the eventual nominee and any late momentum shifts. Limited public polling and national midterm dynamics further contribute to the slim 51.5-48.0 implied probability spread.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
交易量
$18,280结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting has reshaped Virginia's 1st Congressional District into a narrow contest rated Lean Republican by multiple forecasters, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+3 and a 2024 presidential margin of Trump plus five points. Incumbent Republican Rob Wittman benefits from name recognition and substantial fundraising, yet the map's inclusion of Richmond suburbs and overall competitiveness sustain trader expectations of a close general election outcome on November 3. Multiple Democratic primary contenders on the August 4 ballot create uncertainty over the eventual nominee and any late momentum shifts. Limited public polling and national midterm dynamics further contribute to the slim 51.5-48.0 implied probability spread.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$18,280结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting has reshaped Virginia's 1st Congressional District into a narrow contest rated Lean Republican by multiple forecasters, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+3 and a 2024 presidential margin of Trump plus five points. Incumbent Republican Rob Wittman benefits from name recognition and substantial fundraising, yet the map's inclusion of Richmond suburbs and overall competitiveness sustain trader expectations of a close general election outcome on November 3. Multiple Democratic primary contenders on the August 4 ballot create uncertainty over the eventual nominee and any late momentum shifts. Limited public polling and national midterm dynamics further contribute to the slim 51.5-48.0 implied probability spread.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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