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icon for CA-04主要获奖者

CA-04主要获奖者

icon for CA-04主要获奖者

CA-04主要获奖者

$31,460 交易量

2026-06-02
Polymarket

$31,460 交易量

Polymarket

迈克·汤普森

$7,356 交易量

95%

Eric Jones

$5,473 交易量

91%

约翰·韦斯利·泰勒

$1,006 交易量

11%

希斯·富克森

$638 交易量

5%

劳丽·麦肯齐

$710 交易量

4%

特雷弗·梅雷尔

$10,112 交易量

3%

莎伦·布朗

$3,449 交易量

2%

Mandy Ghusar

$2,715 交易量

<1%

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Democratic Representative Mike Thompson, who has held the seat since 1999, faces a primary challenge from Eric Jones in California's June 2, 2026, nonpartisan primary for the 4th Congressional District. The race occurs in a heavily Democratic district altered by redistricting under Proposition 50, with Thompson maintaining strong institutional support and name recognition while Jones, a venture capitalist and political newcomer, has out-raised the incumbent in recent fundraising. Multiple Republican candidates, including Sharon Brown and Ray Riehle, are also on the ballot, though the top-two advance system favors Democratic frontrunners in this D+50 environment. No major late developments have shifted positioning ahead of the primary.

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$31,460
结束日期
2026-06-02
市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Democratic Representative Mike Thompson, who has held the seat since 1999, faces a primary challenge from Eric Jones in California's June 2, 2026, nonpartisan primary for the 4th Congressional District. The race occurs in a heavily Democratic district altered by redistricting under Proposition 50, with Thompson maintaining strong institutional support and name recognition while Jones, a venture capitalist and political newcomer, has out-raised the incumbent in recent fundraising. Multiple Republican candidates, including Sharon Brown and Ray Riehle, are also on the ballot, though the top-two advance system favors Democratic frontrunners in this D+50 environment. No major late developments have shifted positioning ahead of the primary.

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$31,460
结束日期
2026-06-02
市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"CA-04主要获奖者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 8 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"迈克·汤普森",概率为 95%,其次是"Eric Jones",概率为 91%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 95¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 95%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"CA-04主要获奖者"已产生 $31.5K 的总交易量(自Feb 26, 2026市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"CA-04主要获奖者"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 8 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"CA-04主要获奖者"的当前领先者是"迈克·汤普森",概率为 95%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 95%。紧随其后的结果是"Eric Jones",概率为 91%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"CA-04主要获奖者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。