Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Flávio Bolsonaro at 60.5% implied probability to finish second in Brazil's October 2026 presidential election first round, driven by recent polls positioning him just behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva amid a splintered center-right field. Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility until 2030 has elevated his son Flávio, a Rio de Janeiro senator, as the conservative frontrunner for runoff contention, bolstered by the family's enduring base loyalty and Flávio's rising approval in southern and evangelical voting blocs following last week's public endorsements from party leaders. Lula's 22% odds for second reflect trader views of his incumbency edge in the Northeast but vulnerability from economic headwinds and PT infighting, with Fernando Haddad's 6% signaling a potential leftist alternative if Lula stumbles. Fragmentation among governors like Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado caps their chances, emphasizing coalition dynamics in proportional representation. Upcoming regional polls and candidate registrations by March 2026 could shift the closely contested positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 60%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦 22%
费尔南多·哈达 6.0%
雷南·桑托斯 5.3%
$2,540,266 交易量
$2,540,266 交易量
Oct 4, 2026
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
60%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
22%
费尔南多·哈达
6%
雷南·桑托斯
5%
Romeu Zema
3%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
3%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔
1%
赫拉尔多·阿尔克明
1%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
<1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
<1%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
<1%
雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗
<1%
爱德华多·博尔索纳罗
<1%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 60%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦 22%
费尔南多·哈达 6.0%
雷南·桑托斯 5.3%
$2,540,266 交易量
$2,540,266 交易量
Oct 4, 2026
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
$18,739 交易量
60%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
$21,677 交易量
22%
费尔南多·哈达
$623,106 交易量
6%
雷南·桑托斯
$952,707 交易量
5%
Romeu Zema
$112,657 交易量
3%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
$55,070 交易量
3%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔
$591,250 交易量
1%
赫拉尔多·阿尔克明
$39,601 交易量
1%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
$16,703 交易量
<1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
$54,395 交易量
<1%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
$20,055 交易量
<1%
雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗
$17,132 交易量
<1%
爱德华多·博尔索纳罗
$17,174 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Flávio Bolsonaro at 60.5% implied probability to finish second in Brazil's October 2026 presidential election first round, driven by recent polls positioning him just behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva amid a splintered center-right field. Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility until 2030 has elevated his son Flávio, a Rio de Janeiro senator, as the conservative frontrunner for runoff contention, bolstered by the family's enduring base loyalty and Flávio's rising approval in southern and evangelical voting blocs following last week's public endorsements from party leaders. Lula's 22% odds for second reflect trader views of his incumbency edge in the Northeast but vulnerability from economic headwinds and PT infighting, with Fernando Haddad's 6% signaling a potential leftist alternative if Lula stumbles. Fragmentation among governors like Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado caps their chances, emphasizing coalition dynamics in proportional representation. Upcoming regional polls and candidate registrations by March 2026 could shift the closely contested positioning.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$2,540,266结束日期
Oct 4, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Flávio Bolsonaro at 60.5% implied probability to finish second in Brazil's October 2026 presidential election first round, driven by recent polls positioning him just behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva amid a splintered center-right field. Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility until 2030 has elevated his son Flávio, a Rio de Janeiro senator, as the conservative frontrunner for runoff contention, bolstered by the family's enduring base loyalty and Flávio's rising approval in southern and evangelical voting blocs following last week's public endorsements from party leaders. Lula's 22% odds for second reflect trader views of his incumbency edge in the Northeast but vulnerability from economic headwinds and PT infighting, with Fernando Haddad's 6% signaling a potential leftist alternative if Lula stumbles. Fragmentation among governors like Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado caps their chances, emphasizing coalition dynamics in proportional representation. Upcoming regional polls and candidate registrations by March 2026 could shift the closely contested positioning.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$2,540,266结束日期
Oct 4, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Flávio Bolsonaro at 60.5% implied probability to finish second in Brazil's October 2026 presidential election first round, driven by recent polls positioning him just behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva amid a splintered center-right field. Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility until 2030 has elevated his son Flávio, a Rio de Janeiro senator, as the conservative frontrunner for runoff contention, bolstered by the family's enduring base loyalty and Flávio's rising approval in southern and evangelical voting blocs following last week's public endorsements from party leaders. Lula's 22% odds for second reflect trader views of his incumbency edge in the Northeast but vulnerability from economic headwinds and PT infighting, with Fernando Haddad's 6% signaling a potential leftist alternative if Lula stumbles. Fragmentation among governors like Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado caps their chances, emphasizing coalition dynamics in proportional representation. Upcoming regional polls and candidate registrations by March 2026 could shift the closely contested positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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