Recent AtlasIntel polling from March 18-23 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round scenarios at 45.9%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 40.1%, reinforcing trader consensus favoring Flávio for second place amid a fragmented field where other candidates trail far below. Lula, seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term, holds a narrow edge in most surveys like Datafolha and Quaest from early March, but Flávio's surge—fueled by his father's endorsement and the Bolsonaro brand—has narrowed the gap, as seen in a Futura poll where he led. Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal on March 23 may further consolidate right-wing support behind Flávio, while low odds for governors like Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Tarcísio de Freitas reflect their distant standings. The October 4 first round remains competitive, with top two advancing to a potential runoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 56%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦 24%
费尔南多·哈达 6.0%
雷南·桑托斯 5.3%
$2,673,241 交易量
$2,673,241 交易量
Oct 4, 2026
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
56%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
24%
费尔南多·哈达
6%
雷南·桑托斯
5%
Romeu Zema
2%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
2%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
2%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔
1%
赫拉尔多·阿尔克明
1%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
<1%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
<1%
雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗
<1%
爱德华多·博尔索纳罗
<1%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 56%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦 24%
费尔南多·哈达 6.0%
雷南·桑托斯 5.3%
$2,673,241 交易量
$2,673,241 交易量
Oct 4, 2026
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
$18,809 交易量
56%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
$22,031 交易量
24%
费尔南多·哈达
$623,262 交易量
6%
雷南·桑托斯
$953,198 交易量
5%
Romeu Zema
$112,788 交易量
2%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
$173,153 交易量
2%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
$64,403 交易量
2%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔
$592,071 交易量
1%
赫拉尔多·阿尔克明
$40,241 交易量
1%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
$16,758 交易量
<1%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
$22,110 交易量
<1%
雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗
$17,188 交易量
<1%
爱德华多·博尔索纳罗
$17,230 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent AtlasIntel polling from March 18-23 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round scenarios at 45.9%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 40.1%, reinforcing trader consensus favoring Flávio for second place amid a fragmented field where other candidates trail far below. Lula, seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term, holds a narrow edge in most surveys like Datafolha and Quaest from early March, but Flávio's surge—fueled by his father's endorsement and the Bolsonaro brand—has narrowed the gap, as seen in a Futura poll where he led. Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal on March 23 may further consolidate right-wing support behind Flávio, while low odds for governors like Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Tarcísio de Freitas reflect their distant standings. The October 4 first round remains competitive, with top two advancing to a potential runoff.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$2,673,241结束日期
Oct 4, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent AtlasIntel polling from March 18-23 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round scenarios at 45.9%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 40.1%, reinforcing trader consensus favoring Flávio for second place amid a fragmented field where other candidates trail far below. Lula, seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term, holds a narrow edge in most surveys like Datafolha and Quaest from early March, but Flávio's surge—fueled by his father's endorsement and the Bolsonaro brand—has narrowed the gap, as seen in a Futura poll where he led. Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal on March 23 may further consolidate right-wing support behind Flávio, while low odds for governors like Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Tarcísio de Freitas reflect their distant standings. The October 4 first round remains competitive, with top two advancing to a potential runoff.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$2,673,241结束日期
Oct 4, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent AtlasIntel polling from March 18-23 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round scenarios at 45.9%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 40.1%, reinforcing trader consensus favoring Flávio for second place amid a fragmented field where other candidates trail far below. Lula, seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term, holds a narrow edge in most surveys like Datafolha and Quaest from early March, but Flávio's surge—fueled by his father's endorsement and the Bolsonaro brand—has narrowed the gap, as seen in a Futura poll where he led. Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal on March 23 may further consolidate right-wing support behind Flávio, while low odds for governors like Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Tarcísio de Freitas reflect their distant standings. The October 4 first round remains competitive, with top two advancing to a potential runoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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