Recent polls from early April, including Quaest, Datafolha, and Futura, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by narrow margins of 2.5 to 5 points in first-round scenarios, with Lula at 37-40% and Flávio at 32-37%, far short of the 50% needed for outright victory and signaling a likely runoff on October 25. This tightening—down from wider gaps in March—drives trader consensus pricing Lula's first-round margin over the runner-up under 5% at 40% and 5-10% at 21%, while Flávio's narrow lead odds sit at 18%, amid Lula's slipping approval ratings to 44% and Flávio consolidating right-wing support. Lower-polling contenders like Renan Santos and Ratinho Júnior trail distantly, keeping the duel dominant.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5% 40%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10% 22%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5% 19%
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗10%+ 7.6%
$220,652 交易量
$220,652 交易量
2026-10-04
卢拉·达席尔瓦15%+
4%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 10-15%
3%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10%
22%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5%
40%
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗10%+
8%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 5-10%
7%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5%
19%
雷南·桑托斯胜利
5%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯胜利
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔胜利
1%
其他
5%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5% 40%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10% 22%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5% 19%
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗10%+ 7.6%
$220,652 交易量
$220,652 交易量
2026-10-04
卢拉·达席尔瓦15%+
$3,822 交易量
4%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 10-15%
$1,626 交易量
3%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10%
$6,098 交易量
22%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5%
$1,967 交易量
40%
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗10%+
$1,126 交易量
8%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 5-10%
$1,339 交易量
7%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5%
$2,760 交易量
19%
雷南·桑托斯胜利
$198,567 交易量
5%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯胜利
$790 交易量
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔胜利
$1,024 交易量
1%
其他
$1,532 交易量
5%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from early April, including Quaest, Datafolha, and Futura, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by narrow margins of 2.5 to 5 points in first-round scenarios, with Lula at 37-40% and Flávio at 32-37%, far short of the 50% needed for outright victory and signaling a likely runoff on October 25. This tightening—down from wider gaps in March—drives trader consensus pricing Lula's first-round margin over the runner-up under 5% at 40% and 5-10% at 21%, while Flávio's narrow lead odds sit at 18%, amid Lula's slipping approval ratings to 44% and Flávio consolidating right-wing support. Lower-polling contenders like Renan Santos and Ratinho Júnior trail distantly, keeping the duel dominant.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
交易量
$220,652结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from early April, including Quaest, Datafolha, and Futura, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by narrow margins of 2.5 to 5 points in first-round scenarios, with Lula at 37-40% and Flávio at 32-37%, far short of the 50% needed for outright victory and signaling a likely runoff on October 25. This tightening—down from wider gaps in March—drives trader consensus pricing Lula's first-round margin over the runner-up under 5% at 40% and 5-10% at 21%, while Flávio's narrow lead odds sit at 18%, amid Lula's slipping approval ratings to 44% and Flávio consolidating right-wing support. Lower-polling contenders like Renan Santos and Ratinho Júnior trail distantly, keeping the duel dominant.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$220,652结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from early April, including Quaest, Datafolha, and Futura, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by narrow margins of 2.5 to 5 points in first-round scenarios, with Lula at 37-40% and Flávio at 32-37%, far short of the 50% needed for outright victory and signaling a likely runoff on October 25. This tightening—down from wider gaps in March—drives trader consensus pricing Lula's first-round margin over the runner-up under 5% at 40% and 5-10% at 21%, while Flávio's narrow lead odds sit at 18%, amid Lula's slipping approval ratings to 44% and Flávio consolidating right-wing support. Lower-polling contenders like Renan Santos and Ratinho Júnior trail distantly, keeping the duel dominant.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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