Recent constituency polling indicates Sinn Féin councillor Janice Boylan holds a narrow lead on first preferences, yet trader consensus assigns Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats the highest implied probability because Ireland’s single transferable vote system channels second and subsequent preferences from eliminated candidates toward centrist and left-leaning options. The TG4/Irish Times Ipsos B&A survey from mid-May placed Boylan at 21 percent, Ennis at 18 percent, independent Gerry Hutch at 14 percent and Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam at 13 percent, with the race tightening as the 22 May polling date approaches. Ennis’s positioning for transfers from multiple minor parties and independents has strengthened his market standing ahead of the final week of campaigning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于丹尼尔·恩尼斯 79%
贾尼斯·博伊兰 17.6%
杰里·哈奇 4.0%
Ray McAdam <1%
$1,112,106 交易量
$1,112,106 交易量
2026-12-31
丹尼尔·恩尼斯
79%
贾尼斯·博伊兰
18%
杰里·哈奇
4%
Ray McAdam
1%
马拉基·斯廷森
1%
伊恩·诺埃尔·史密斯
1%
珍妮特·霍纳
<1%
吉莉安·谢拉特
<1%
Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin
<1%
Séamas McGrattan
<1%
玛丽·菲茨帕特里克
<1%
约翰·斯蒂芬斯
<1%
丹尼尔·恩尼斯 79%
贾尼斯·博伊兰 17.6%
杰里·哈奇 4.0%
Ray McAdam <1%
$1,112,106 交易量
$1,112,106 交易量
2026-12-31
丹尼尔·恩尼斯
$35,380 交易量
79%
贾尼斯·博伊兰
$19,246 交易量
18%
杰里·哈奇
$512,399 交易量
4%
Ray McAdam
$35,512 交易量
1%
马拉基·斯廷森
$23,202 交易量
1%
伊恩·诺埃尔·史密斯
$14,460 交易量
1%
珍妮特·霍纳
$17,392 交易量
<1%
吉莉安·谢拉特
$188,363 交易量
<1%
Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin
$54,216 交易量
<1%
Séamas McGrattan
$10,570 交易量
<1%
玛丽·菲茨帕特里克
$46,467 交易量
<1%
约翰·斯蒂芬斯
$154,899 交易量
<1%
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Recent constituency polling indicates Sinn Féin councillor Janice Boylan holds a narrow lead on first preferences, yet trader consensus assigns Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats the highest implied probability because Ireland’s single transferable vote system channels second and subsequent preferences from eliminated candidates toward centrist and left-leaning options. The TG4/Irish Times Ipsos B&A survey from mid-May placed Boylan at 21 percent, Ennis at 18 percent, independent Gerry Hutch at 14 percent and Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam at 13 percent, with the race tightening as the 22 May polling date approaches. Ennis’s positioning for transfers from multiple minor parties and independents has strengthened his market standing ahead of the final week of campaigning.
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
市场开放时间： Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET
交易量
$1,112,106结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Recent constituency polling indicates Sinn Féin councillor Janice Boylan holds a narrow lead on first preferences, yet trader consensus assigns Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats the highest implied probability because Ireland’s single transferable vote system channels second and subsequent preferences from eliminated candidates toward centrist and left-leaning options. The TG4/Irish Times Ipsos B&A survey from mid-May placed Boylan at 21 percent, Ennis at 18 percent, independent Gerry Hutch at 14 percent and Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam at 13 percent, with the race tightening as the 22 May polling date approaches. Ennis’s positioning for transfers from multiple minor parties and independents has strengthened his market standing ahead of the final week of campaigning.
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
交易量
$1,112,106结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent constituency polling indicates Sinn Féin councillor Janice Boylan holds a narrow lead on first preferences, yet trader consensus assigns Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats the highest implied probability because Ireland’s single transferable vote system channels second and subsequent preferences from eliminated candidates toward centrist and left-leaning options. The TG4/Irish Times Ipsos B&A survey from mid-May placed Boylan at 21 percent, Ennis at 18 percent, independent Gerry Hutch at 14 percent and Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam at 13 percent, with the race tightening as the 22 May polling date approaches. Ennis’s positioning for transfers from multiple minor parties and independents has strengthened his market standing ahead of the final week of campaigning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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