With over 93% of ballots counted in Peru's April 12 first-round presidential election, trader consensus heavily favors Roberto Sánchez Palomino for second place at 78.8% implied probability, reflecting his late surge from strong rural turnout in provinces like Cajamarca that overtook far-right Rafael López Aliaga's early urban leads in Lima. Keiko Fujimori holds first with around 17%, setting up a likely June 7 runoff absent a majority. Initial exit polls and quick counts from Ipsos and Datum projected López Aliaga or Jorge Nieto higher, but ONPE tallies updated April 15–17 confirmed Sánchez's edge at 12–13%, narrowing López Aliaga's path amid geographic vote skews typical in Peruvian elections. Final certification by the National Jury of Elections could still shift slim margins.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于罗伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米诺 79.1%
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加 19%
豪尔赫·涅托 <1%
藤森惠子 <1%
$4,445,256 交易量
$4,445,256 交易量
2026-04-12
罗伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米诺
79%
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加
19%
豪尔赫·涅托
1%
藤森惠子
<1%
马里奥·比斯卡拉
<1%
阿方索·洛佩斯·查乌
<1%
何塞·卢纳
<1%
恩里克·巴尔德拉马
<1%
卡洛斯·埃斯帕
<1%
拉斐尔·贝劳恩德·略萨
<1%
梅西亚斯·格瓦拉
<1%
乔治·福赛思
<1%
菲奥雷拉·莫利内利
<1%
塞萨尔·阿库尼亚
<1%
何塞·威廉姆斯
<1%
里卡多·贝尔蒙特
<1%
卡洛斯·阿尔瓦雷斯
<1%
弗拉迪米尔·塞龙
<1%
罗伯托·基亚布拉
<1%
费尔南多·奥利韦拉
<1%
Yonhy Lescano
<1%
马里索尔·佩雷斯·特略
<1%
沃尔夫冈·格罗佐
<1%
罗伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米诺 79.1%
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加 19%
豪尔赫·涅托 <1%
藤森惠子 <1%
$4,445,256 交易量
$4,445,256 交易量
2026-04-12
罗伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米诺
$1,729,626 交易量
79%
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加
$1,491,856 交易量
19%
豪尔赫·涅托
$318,970 交易量
1%
藤森惠子
$170,544 交易量
<1%
马里奥·比斯卡拉
$26,201 交易量
<1%
阿方索·洛佩斯·查乌
$97,036 交易量
<1%
何塞·卢纳
$19,023 交易量
<1%
恩里克·巴尔德拉马
$19,429 交易量
<1%
卡洛斯·埃斯帕
$25,495 交易量
<1%
拉斐尔·贝劳恩德·略萨
$17,790 交易量
<1%
梅西亚斯·格瓦拉
$21,797 交易量
<1%
乔治·福赛思
$21,365 交易量
<1%
菲奥雷拉·莫利内利
$20,383 交易量
<1%
塞萨尔·阿库尼亚
$21,993 交易量
<1%
何塞·威廉姆斯
$21,851 交易量
<1%
里卡多·贝尔蒙特
$213,973 交易量
<1%
卡洛斯·阿尔瓦雷斯
$70,801 交易量
<1%
弗拉迪米尔·塞龙
$21,320 交易量
<1%
罗伯托·基亚布拉
$20,938 交易量
<1%
费尔南多·奥利韦拉
$21,593 交易量
<1%
Yonhy Lescano
$30,622 交易量
<1%
马里索尔·佩雷斯·特略
$21,630 交易量
<1%
沃尔夫冈·格罗佐
$21,243 交易量
<1%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)With over 93% of ballots counted in Peru's April 12 first-round presidential election, trader consensus heavily favors Roberto Sánchez Palomino for second place at 78.8% implied probability, reflecting his late surge from strong rural turnout in provinces like Cajamarca that overtook far-right Rafael López Aliaga's early urban leads in Lima. Keiko Fujimori holds first with around 17%, setting up a likely June 7 runoff absent a majority. Initial exit polls and quick counts from Ipsos and Datum projected López Aliaga or Jorge Nieto higher, but ONPE tallies updated April 15–17 confirmed Sánchez's edge at 12–13%, narrowing López Aliaga's path amid geographic vote skews typical in Peruvian elections. Final certification by the National Jury of Elections could still shift slim margins.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
市场开放时间： Mar 20, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$4,445,256结束日期
2026-04-12市场开放时间
Mar 20, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)With over 93% of ballots counted in Peru's April 12 first-round presidential election, trader consensus heavily favors Roberto Sánchez Palomino for second place at 78.8% implied probability, reflecting his late surge from strong rural turnout in provinces like Cajamarca that overtook far-right Rafael López Aliaga's early urban leads in Lima. Keiko Fujimori holds first with around 17%, setting up a likely June 7 runoff absent a majority. Initial exit polls and quick counts from Ipsos and Datum projected López Aliaga or Jorge Nieto higher, but ONPE tallies updated April 15–17 confirmed Sánchez's edge at 12–13%, narrowing López Aliaga's path amid geographic vote skews typical in Peruvian elections. Final certification by the National Jury of Elections could still shift slim margins.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
交易量
$4,445,256结束日期
2026-04-12市场开放时间
Mar 20, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With over 93% of ballots counted in Peru's April 12 first-round presidential election, trader consensus heavily favors Roberto Sánchez Palomino for second place at 78.8% implied probability, reflecting his late surge from strong rural turnout in provinces like Cajamarca that overtook far-right Rafael López Aliaga's early urban leads in Lima. Keiko Fujimori holds first with around 17%, setting up a likely June 7 runoff absent a majority. Initial exit polls and quick counts from Ipsos and Datum projected López Aliaga or Jorge Nieto higher, but ONPE tallies updated April 15–17 confirmed Sánchez's edge at 12–13%, narrowing López Aliaga's path amid geographic vote skews typical in Peruvian elections. Final certification by the National Jury of Elections could still shift slim margins.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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