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政治·众议院

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
政治·众议院

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

Aisha Wahab 89%

Rakhi Israni Singh 10.7%

Melissa Hernandez 3.8%

Carin Elam 3.3%

Polymarket
最新

Aisha Wahab 89%

Rakhi Israni Singh 10.7%

Melissa Hernandez 3.8%

Carin Elam 3.3%

Polymarket
最新

Aisha Wahab

$495 交易量

89%

Melissa Hernandez

$248 交易量

4%

Wendy Huang

$410 交易量

2%

Carin Elam

$246 交易量

3%

Matt Ortega

$219 交易量

2%

Rakhi Israni Singh

$705 交易量

11%

Victor Aguilar Jr.

$188 交易量

3%

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab holds an 89% implied probability in the CA-14 special election market, driven by her endorsement from the California Democratic Party and a substantial lead in recent polling within the heavily Democratic East Bay district. The June 16 special primary, triggered by Eric Swalwell’s April resignation amid misconduct allegations, features a crowded field of Democratic challengers including Rakhi Israni Singh and Melissa Hernandez, alongside lower-profile Republican and independent candidates. Wahab’s state senate experience and institutional backing have consolidated support ahead of the top-two primary format, where a majority win would avoid an August 18 runoff. Traders’ consensus reflects the structural barriers facing non-endorsed contenders in this safe Democratic seat.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
交易量
$2,510
结束日期
2026-08-18
市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab holds an 89% implied probability in the CA-14 special election market, driven by her endorsement from the California Democratic Party and a substantial lead in recent polling within the heavily Democratic East Bay district. The June 16 special primary, triggered by Eric Swalwell’s April resignation amid misconduct allegations, features a crowded field of Democratic challengers including Rakhi Israni Singh and Melissa Hernandez, alongside lower-profile Republican and independent candidates. Wahab’s state senate experience and institutional backing have consolidated support ahead of the top-two primary format, where a majority win would avoid an August 18 runoff. Traders’ consensus reflects the structural barriers facing non-endorsed contenders in this safe Democratic seat.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
交易量
$2,510
结束日期
2026-08-18
市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 7 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"Aisha Wahab"，概率为 89%，其次是"Rakhi Israni Singh"，概率为 11%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 89¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 89%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Apr 16, 2026上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"CA-14 Special Election Winner?"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 7 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?"的当前领先者是"Aisha Wahab"，概率为 89%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 89%。紧随其后的结果是"Rakhi Israni Singh"，概率为 11%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。