Trader consensus favors Green Party's Zoë Garbett at 49.5% over incumbent Labour Mayor Caroline Woodley at 41%, driven by a JL Partners MRP poll from April 15 showing Greens leading council vote intentions 40%-33% amid anti-incumbent sentiment from housing affordability woes and national Labour challenges. The first-past-the-post mayoral ballot keeps the race tight, as Reform UK's Vahid Almasi (11% implied), Conservative Tareke Gregg, and Liberal Democrat Eva Steinhardt could split opposition votes, allowing Woodley's incumbency advantage—bolstered by 2023 by-election win and pledges on wages and benefits—to prevail. Garbett's push for community ownership and low-traffic neighbourhoods appeals to progressive voters in this left-leaning borough, where Greens have surged via by-election gains and membership growth. With the May 7 vote approaching, final hustings, turnout, and postal ballots could tip the balance in this historic Labour stronghold.