Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Tisza at 76% implied probability to win Hungary's popular vote in the April 12 parliamentary election, reflecting recent polls showing the opposition party widening its lead over incumbent Fidesz–KDNP. A March 25 Medián survey indicated Tisza ahead by 23 points among all respondents, up from prior margins, bolstered by Péter Magyar's high-visibility campaign and a March 15 national rally drawing hundreds of thousands. Fidesz trails at 24% amid voter fatigue after 16 years in power, though the mixed-member proportional system—combining single-member districts and national party lists—means turnout, undecided voters, and final-week momentum could narrow the gap before polls close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于蒂萨 76%
青年民主主义者联盟－基督教民主人民党（Fidesz–KDNP） 24%
其他 <1%
$113,632 交易量
$113,632 交易量
Apr 12, 2026
青年民主主义者联盟－基督教民主人民党（Fidesz–KDNP）
24%
蒂萨
76%
其他
<1%
蒂萨 76%
青年民主主义者联盟－基督教民主人民党（Fidesz–KDNP） 24%
其他 <1%
$113,632 交易量
$113,632 交易量
Apr 12, 2026
青年民主主义者联盟－基督教民主人民党（Fidesz–KDNP）
$63,298 交易量
24%
蒂萨
$50,334 交易量
76%
其他
$0 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Tisza at 76% implied probability to win Hungary's popular vote in the April 12 parliamentary election, reflecting recent polls showing the opposition party widening its lead over incumbent Fidesz–KDNP. A March 25 Medián survey indicated Tisza ahead by 23 points among all respondents, up from prior margins, bolstered by Péter Magyar's high-visibility campaign and a March 15 national rally drawing hundreds of thousands. Fidesz trails at 24% amid voter fatigue after 16 years in power, though the mixed-member proportional system—combining single-member districts and national party lists—means turnout, undecided voters, and final-week momentum could narrow the gap before polls close.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
市场开放时间： Mar 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
交易量
$113,632结束日期
Apr 12, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Tisza at 76% implied probability to win Hungary's popular vote in the April 12 parliamentary election, reflecting recent polls showing the opposition party widening its lead over incumbent Fidesz–KDNP. A March 25 Medián survey indicated Tisza ahead by 23 points among all respondents, up from prior margins, bolstered by Péter Magyar's high-visibility campaign and a March 15 national rally drawing hundreds of thousands. Fidesz trails at 24% amid voter fatigue after 16 years in power, though the mixed-member proportional system—combining single-member districts and national party lists—means turnout, undecided voters, and final-week momentum could narrow the gap before polls close.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
交易量
$113,632结束日期
Apr 12, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Tisza at 76% implied probability to win Hungary's popular vote in the April 12 parliamentary election, reflecting recent polls showing the opposition party widening its lead over incumbent Fidesz–KDNP. A March 25 Medián survey indicated Tisza ahead by 23 points among all respondents, up from prior margins, bolstered by Péter Magyar's high-visibility campaign and a March 15 national rally drawing hundreds of thousands. Fidesz trails at 24% amid voter fatigue after 16 years in power, though the mixed-member proportional system—combining single-member districts and national party lists—means turnout, undecided voters, and final-week momentum could narrow the gap before polls close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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