Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 99.9% implied probability that Donald Trump remains president beyond March 31, driven by the extraordinarily narrow three-day window remaining and the absence of any active removal mechanisms. No impeachment proceedings, 25th Amendment invocations, congressional votes, or credible reports of resignation, incapacity, or health crises have emerged in the past 30 days, with the most recent White House physician report affirming his fitness for duty earlier this month. Structural barriers remain high: impeachment requires House passage and two-thirds Senate conviction, while voluntary exit or cabinet-led incapacity declarations face steep political hurdles absent a crisis. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden scandals, medical emergencies, or late-breaking legal rulings, though traders price these as negligible risks before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$12,730,907 交易量
$12,730,907 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
是
$12,730,907 交易量
$12,730,907 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 99.9% implied probability that Donald Trump remains president beyond March 31, driven by the extraordinarily narrow three-day window remaining and the absence of any active removal mechanisms. No impeachment proceedings, 25th Amendment invocations, congressional votes, or credible reports of resignation, incapacity, or health crises have emerged in the past 30 days, with the most recent White House physician report affirming his fitness for duty earlier this month. Structural barriers remain high: impeachment requires House passage and two-thirds Senate conviction, while voluntary exit or cabinet-led incapacity declarations face steep political hurdles absent a crisis. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden scandals, medical emergencies, or late-breaking legal rulings, though traders price these as negligible risks before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 4:55 PM ET
交易量
$12,730,907结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 4:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 99.9% implied probability that Donald Trump remains president beyond March 31, driven by the extraordinarily narrow three-day window remaining and the absence of any active removal mechanisms. No impeachment proceedings, 25th Amendment invocations, congressional votes, or credible reports of resignation, incapacity, or health crises have emerged in the past 30 days, with the most recent White House physician report affirming his fitness for duty earlier this month. Structural barriers remain high: impeachment requires House passage and two-thirds Senate conviction, while voluntary exit or cabinet-led incapacity declarations face steep political hurdles absent a crisis. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden scandals, medical emergencies, or late-breaking legal rulings, though traders price these as negligible risks before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$12,731,018结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 4:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 99.9% implied probability that Donald Trump remains president beyond March 31, driven by the extraordinarily narrow three-day window remaining and the absence of any active removal mechanisms. No impeachment proceedings, 25th Amendment invocations, congressional votes, or credible reports of resignation, incapacity, or health crises have emerged in the past 30 days, with the most recent White House physician report affirming his fitness for duty earlier this month. Structural barriers remain high: impeachment requires House passage and two-thirds Senate conviction, while voluntary exit or cabinet-led incapacity declarations face steep political hurdles absent a crisis. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden scandals, medical emergencies, or late-breaking legal rulings, though traders price these as negligible risks before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题