Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's escalating scandals have driven trader consensus to price her at 56.5% implied probability as the next Trump Cabinet departure, following the recent exit of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. In early March, two top aides resigned amid a Labor Department inspector general probe into alleged travel fraud, hostile workplace conditions, and misuse of funds for personal events like a disguised birthday party she denied to Congress. Her bodyguard quit last week over affair claims, with investigations widening and additional staff ousted, heightening resignation speculation despite ongoing policy announcements on prevailing wages. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (11.8%) and DNI Tulsi Gabbard (10.8%) linger on prior national security breaches but lack new catalysts, while "None before 2027" at 6.5% reflects doubts on sustained stability amid high historical Cabinet turnover rates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于洛莉·查韦斯-德雷默 57%
皮特·海格塞斯 12.3%
图尔西·加巴德 10.8%
2027年前无人 6.5%
$1,910,353 交易量
$1,910,353 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
洛莉·查韦斯-德雷默
57%
皮特·海格塞斯
12%
图尔西·加巴德
11%
2027年前无人
6%
霍华德·卢特尼克
4%
迈克·沃尔茨
2%
斯科特·贝森特
2%
布鲁克·罗林斯
1%
J.D.万斯
1%
李·泽尔丁
1%
肖恩·达菲
1%
帕姆·邦迪
1%
罗伯特·F·肯尼迪 Jr.
1%
斯科特·特纳
1%
琳达·麦克马洪
1%
苏西·威尔斯
1%
拉塞尔·T·沃特
1%
约翰·拉特克利夫
1%
马可·鲁比奥
1%
克里斯·赖特
1%
凯利·洛夫勒
<1%
贾米森·格里尔
<1%
道格·柯林斯
<1%
道格·伯古姆
<1%
洛莉·查韦斯-德雷默 57%
皮特·海格塞斯 12.3%
图尔西·加巴德 10.8%
2027年前无人 6.5%
$1,910,353 交易量
$1,910,353 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
洛莉·查韦斯-德雷默
$73,286 交易量
57%
皮特·海格塞斯
$468,666 交易量
12%
图尔西·加巴德
$693,910 交易量
11%
2027年前无人
$380,976 交易量
6%
霍华德·卢特尼克
$26,202 交易量
4%
迈克·沃尔茨
$4,298 交易量
2%
斯科特·贝森特
$4,568 交易量
2%
布鲁克·罗林斯
$6,671 交易量
1%
J.D.万斯
$7,171 交易量
1%
李·泽尔丁
$70,392 交易量
1%
肖恩·达菲
$67,124 交易量
1%
帕姆·邦迪
$4,020 交易量
1%
罗伯特·F·肯尼迪 Jr.
$3,560 交易量
1%
斯科特·特纳
$5,472 交易量
1%
琳达·麦克马洪
$9,812 交易量
1%
苏西·威尔斯
$4,750 交易量
1%
拉塞尔·T·沃特
$3,976 交易量
1%
约翰·拉特克利夫
$3,998 交易量
1%
马可·鲁比奥
$50,374 交易量
1%
克里斯·赖特
$3,869 交易量
1%
凯利·洛夫勒
$3,705 交易量
<1%
贾米森·格里尔
$4,507 交易量
<1%
道格·柯林斯
$3,258 交易量
<1%
道格·伯古姆
$5,787 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's escalating scandals have driven trader consensus to price her at 56.5% implied probability as the next Trump Cabinet departure, following the recent exit of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. In early March, two top aides resigned amid a Labor Department inspector general probe into alleged travel fraud, hostile workplace conditions, and misuse of funds for personal events like a disguised birthday party she denied to Congress. Her bodyguard quit last week over affair claims, with investigations widening and additional staff ousted, heightening resignation speculation despite ongoing policy announcements on prevailing wages. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (11.8%) and DNI Tulsi Gabbard (10.8%) linger on prior national security breaches but lack new catalysts, while "None before 2027" at 6.5% reflects doubts on sustained stability amid high historical Cabinet turnover rates.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
交易量
$1,910,353结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's escalating scandals have driven trader consensus to price her at 56.5% implied probability as the next Trump Cabinet departure, following the recent exit of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. In early March, two top aides resigned amid a Labor Department inspector general probe into alleged travel fraud, hostile workplace conditions, and misuse of funds for personal events like a disguised birthday party she denied to Congress. Her bodyguard quit last week over affair claims, with investigations widening and additional staff ousted, heightening resignation speculation despite ongoing policy announcements on prevailing wages. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (11.8%) and DNI Tulsi Gabbard (10.8%) linger on prior national security breaches but lack new catalysts, while "None before 2027" at 6.5% reflects doubts on sustained stability amid high historical Cabinet turnover rates.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
交易量
$1,910,353结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's escalating scandals have driven trader consensus to price her at 56.5% implied probability as the next Trump Cabinet departure, following the recent exit of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. In early March, two top aides resigned amid a Labor Department inspector general probe into alleged travel fraud, hostile workplace conditions, and misuse of funds for personal events like a disguised birthday party she denied to Congress. Her bodyguard quit last week over affair claims, with investigations widening and additional staff ousted, heightening resignation speculation despite ongoing policy announcements on prevailing wages. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (11.8%) and DNI Tulsi Gabbard (10.8%) linger on prior national security breaches but lack new catalysts, while "None before 2027" at 6.5% reflects doubts on sustained stability amid high historical Cabinet turnover rates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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