Market icon

谁将成为下一个离开特朗普内阁的人?

Market icon

谁将成为下一个离开特朗普内阁的人?

Dec 31

Dec 31

洛莉·查韦斯-德雷默 59%

图尔西·加巴德 10.8%

皮特·海格塞斯 9.7%

2027年前无人 5.9%

Polymarket

$1,514,325 交易量

洛莉·查韦斯-德雷默 59%

图尔西·加巴德 10.8%

皮特·海格塞斯 9.7%

2027年前无人 5.9%

Polymarket

$1,514,325 交易量

洛莉·查韦斯-德雷默

$73,219 交易量

59%

图尔西·加巴德

$693,886 交易量

11%

皮特·海格塞斯

$342,189 交易量

10%

2027年前无人

$151,658 交易量

6%

迈克·沃尔茨

$4,298 交易量

3%

李·泽尔丁

$40,976 交易量

3%

斯科特·贝森特

$4,568 交易量

2%

布鲁克·罗林斯

$6,623 交易量

1%

J.D.万斯

$7,171 交易量

1%

肖恩·达菲

$63,962 交易量

1%

帕姆·邦迪

$3,967 交易量

1%

罗伯特·F·肯尼迪 Jr.

$3,560 交易量

1%

霍华德·卢特尼克

$26,010 交易量

1%

琳达·麦克马洪

$9,797 交易量

1%

斯科特·特纳

$5,472 交易量

1%

苏西·威尔斯

$4,687 交易量

1%

约翰·拉特克利夫

$3,998 交易量

1%

拉塞尔·T·沃特

$3,910 交易量

1%

马可·鲁比奥

$50,374 交易量

1%

克里斯·赖特

$3,792 交易量

1%

凯利·洛夫勒

$3,705 交易量

<1%

贾米森·格里尔

$4,507 交易量

<1%

道格·柯林斯

$3,258 交易量

<1%

道格·伯古姆

$5,787 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 58.5% to be the next Trump Cabinet member to resign or be fired, driven by a cascade of recent scandals at the Department of Labor. In the past month, her top aides were forced to resign following a White House ultimatum amid an inspector general probe into alleged misconduct and misuse of funds; a third aide was placed on leave; her security detail head quit over affair claims; and her husband was barred from the building after assault allegations against staffers. These developments signal deepening turmoil, contrasting with lower odds for Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (10.8%) and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (9.7%), whose earlier confirmation battles have not escalated recently, while "None before 2027" languishes at 6% amid expectations of high turnover akin to Trump's first term.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 58.5% to be the next Trump Cabinet member to resign or be fired, driven by a cascade of recent scandals at the Department of Labor. In the past month, her top aides were forced to resign following a White House ultimatum amid an inspector general probe into alleged misconduct and misuse of funds; a third aide was placed on leave; her security detail head quit over affair claims; and her husband was barred from the building after assault allegations against staffers. These developments signal deepening turmoil, contrasting with lower odds for Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (10.8%) and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (9.7%), whose earlier confirmation battles have not escalated recently, while "None before 2027" languishes at 6% amid expectations of high turnover akin to Trump's first term.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 58.5% to be the next Trump Cabinet member to resign or be fired, driven by a cascade of recent scandals at the Department of Labor. In the past month, her top aides were forced to resign following a White House ultimatum amid an inspector general probe into alleged misconduct and misuse of funds; a third aide was placed on leave; her security detail head quit over affair claims; and her husband was barred from the building after assault allegations against staffers. These developments signal deepening turmoil, contrasting with lower odds for Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (10.8%) and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (9.7%), whose earlier confirmation battles have not escalated recently, while "None before 2027" languishes at 6% amid expectations of high turnover akin to Trump's first term.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 58.5% to be the next Trump Cabinet member to resign or be fired, driven by a cascade of recent scandals at the Department of Labor. In the past month, her top aides were forced to resign following a White House ultimatum amid an inspector general probe into alleged misconduct and misuse of funds; a third aide was placed on leave; her security detail head quit over affair claims; and her husband was barred from the building after assault allegations against staffers. These developments signal deepening turmoil, contrasting with lower odds for Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (10.8%) and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (9.7%), whose earlier confirmation battles have not escalated recently, while "None before 2027" languishes at 6% amid expectations of high turnover akin to Trump's first term.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

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常见问题

"谁将成为下一个离开特朗普内阁的人?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 24 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"洛莉·查韦斯-德雷默",概率为 59%,其次是"图尔西·加巴德",概率为 11%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 59¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 59%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"谁将成为下一个离开特朗普内阁的人?"已产生 $1.5 million 的总交易量(自Mar 6, 2026市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"谁将成为下一个离开特朗普内阁的人?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 24 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"谁将成为下一个离开特朗普内阁的人?"的当前领先者是"洛莉·查韦斯-德雷默",概率为 59%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 59%。紧随其后的结果是"图尔西·加巴德",概率为 11%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"谁将成为下一个离开特朗普内阁的人?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。