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政治·橱柜

Howard Lutnick在3月31日前就任商务部长？

Market icon
政治·橱柜

Howard Lutnick在3月31日前就任商务部长？

是

<1% chance
Polymarket

$69,844 交易量

是

<1% chance
Polymarket

$69,844 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, confirmed by a 51-45 Senate vote in February 2025, continues serving actively over a year into his tenure, anchoring trader consensus at 99.3% probability against his exit by March 31. Recent developments affirm stability: on March 27, he met with House Speaker Mike Johnson on DHS appropriations involving ICE and CBP functions, while senators addressed letters to him as secretary on trade matters March 26. Despite Democratic lawmakers' calls for resignation—citing past Epstein associations from released files and a March 19 critique of a USA Rare Earth equity deal—no official statements indicate departure plans. With mere days left, abrupt presidential dismissal, health crisis, or late-breaking scandal would be required to alter this cabinet position.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, confirmed by a 51-45 Senate vote in February 2025, continues serving actively over a year into his tenure, anchoring trader consensus at 99.3% probability against his exit by March 31. Recent developments affirm stability: on March 27, he met with House Speaker Mike Johnson on DHS appropriations involving ICE and CBP functions, while senators addressed letters to him as secretary on trade matters March 26. Despite Democratic lawmakers' calls for resignation—citing past Epstein associations from released files and a March 19 critique of a USA Rare Earth equity deal—no official statements indicate departure plans. With mere days left, abrupt presidential dismissal, health crisis, or late-breaking scandal would be required to alter this cabinet position.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, confirmed by a 51-45 Senate vote in February 2025, continues serving actively over a year into his tenure, anchoring trader consensus at 99.3% probability against his exit by March 31. Recent developments affirm stability: on March 27, he met with House Speaker Mike Johnson on DHS appropriations involving ICE and CBP functions, while senators addressed letters to him as secretary on trade matters March 26. Despite Democratic lawmakers' calls for resignation—citing past Epstein associations from released files and a March 19 critique of a USA Rare Earth equity deal—no official statements indicate departure plans. With mere days left, abrupt presidential dismissal, health crisis, or late-breaking scandal would be required to alter this cabinet position.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, confirmed by a 51-45 Senate vote in February 2025, continues serving actively over a year into his tenure, anchoring trader consensus at 99.3% probability against his exit by March 31. Recent developments affirm stability: on March 27, he met with House Speaker Mike Johnson on DHS appropriations involving ICE and CBP functions, while senators addressed letters to him as secretary on trade matters March 26. Despite Democratic lawmakers' calls for resignation—citing past Epstein associations from released files and a March 19 critique of a USA Rare Earth equity deal—no official statements indicate departure plans. With mere days left, abrupt presidential dismissal, health crisis, or late-breaking scandal would be required to alter this cabinet position.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"Howard Lutnick在3月31日前就任商务部长？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"霍华德·卢特尼克会在3月31日前卸任商务部长吗？"，概率为 1%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 1¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 1%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"Howard Lutnick在3月31日前就任商务部长？"已产生 $69.8K 的总交易量（自Feb 12, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"Howard Lutnick在3月31日前就任商务部长？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

这是一个非常开放的市场。"Howard Lutnick在3月31日前就任商务部长？"的当前领先者是"霍华德·卢特尼克会在3月31日前卸任商务部长吗？"，仅有 1%。由于没有任何结果占据明显优势，交易者认为这高度不确定，可能带来独特的交易机会。这些赔率实时更新，请将本页加入书签。

"Howard Lutnick在3月31日前就任商务部长？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。