Recent tracking polls, including Nanos Research's April 24 update showing Liberal support at 44.6%—down from 45.8% the prior week—along with reports of flattening momentum and a lead narrowing to 11 points over Conservatives, have traders pricing a 57.5% chance of declining seat projections this week. Liberals swept recent by-elections in Ontario and Quebec, bolstering their minority government to near-majority status, but lower vote shares amid subdued turnout signal potential voter fatigue. Aggregators like 338Canada project Liberals at 217 seats (up slightly as of April 26), yet the closely contested odds reflect uncertainty ahead of any new polls, with no major releases in the past 48 hours amid stable national trends favoring a Liberal majority path.