Trader consensus heavily favors 70-75% turnout at 93.5% implied probability for Peru's April 12-13 first-round presidential election, aligning with the 2021 election's 70% effective participation rate (% Total Asistentes / Electores hábiles per ONPE data) amid persistent voter apathy from political instability and a fragmented field of 35 candidates. Logistical failures—late ballot deliveries affecting over 50,000 voters, prompting a one-day extension and ONPE director arrest—depressed actual attendance despite high exit poll estimates around 81% from Ipsos and Transparencia, which traders discount in favor of preliminary official tallies showing 69.16% at 93% actas processed. Final JNE certification could shift odds if rural or abroad counts (40% turnout) push above 75%, but fraud claims and delays reinforce the narrow range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于70-75% 93.7%
75-80% 2.5%
低于70% 1.5%
80-85% 1.4%
$161,914 交易量
$161,914 交易量
2026-04-12
低于70%
2%
70-75%
94%
75-80%
3%
80-85%
1%
> 85%
<1%
70-75% 93.7%
75-80% 2.5%
低于70% 1.5%
80-85% 1.4%
$161,914 交易量
$161,914 交易量
2026-04-12
低于70%
$24,883 交易量
2%
70-75%
$44,119 交易量
94%
75-80%
$25,093 交易量
3%
80-85%
$58,122 交易量
1%
> 85%
$9,696 交易量
<1%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)Trader consensus heavily favors 70-75% turnout at 93.5% implied probability for Peru's April 12-13 first-round presidential election, aligning with the 2021 election's 70% effective participation rate (% Total Asistentes / Electores hábiles per ONPE data) amid persistent voter apathy from political instability and a fragmented field of 35 candidates. Logistical failures—late ballot deliveries affecting over 50,000 voters, prompting a one-day extension and ONPE director arrest—depressed actual attendance despite high exit poll estimates around 81% from Ipsos and Transparencia, which traders discount in favor of preliminary official tallies showing 69.16% at 93% actas processed. Final JNE certification could shift odds if rural or abroad counts (40% turnout) push above 75%, but fraud claims and delays reinforce the narrow range.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
市场开放时间： Mar 20, 2026, 10:28 AM ET
交易量
$161,914结束日期
2026-04-12市场开放时间
Mar 20, 2026, 10:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)Trader consensus heavily favors 70-75% turnout at 93.5% implied probability for Peru's April 12-13 first-round presidential election, aligning with the 2021 election's 70% effective participation rate (% Total Asistentes / Electores hábiles per ONPE data) amid persistent voter apathy from political instability and a fragmented field of 35 candidates. Logistical failures—late ballot deliveries affecting over 50,000 voters, prompting a one-day extension and ONPE director arrest—depressed actual attendance despite high exit poll estimates around 81% from Ipsos and Transparencia, which traders discount in favor of preliminary official tallies showing 69.16% at 93% actas processed. Final JNE certification could shift odds if rural or abroad counts (40% turnout) push above 75%, but fraud claims and delays reinforce the narrow range.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
交易量
$161,914结束日期
2026-04-12市场开放时间
Mar 20, 2026, 10:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors 70-75% turnout at 93.5% implied probability for Peru's April 12-13 first-round presidential election, aligning with the 2021 election's 70% effective participation rate (% Total Asistentes / Electores hábiles per ONPE data) amid persistent voter apathy from political instability and a fragmented field of 35 candidates. Logistical failures—late ballot deliveries affecting over 50,000 voters, prompting a one-day extension and ONPE director arrest—depressed actual attendance despite high exit poll estimates around 81% from Ipsos and Transparencia, which traders discount in favor of preliminary official tallies showing 69.16% at 93% actas processed. Final JNE certification could shift odds if rural or abroad counts (40% turnout) push above 75%, but fraud claims and delays reinforce the narrow range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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