Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84.5% implied probability to Democrats winning House control in the 2026 midterms, driven by historical midterm penalties where the incumbent president's party has lost an average of 27 seats since 1950, often flipping the chamber. Republicans hold a razor-thin majority—projected at 220-215—following their narrow 2024 victory despite Donald Trump's presidential win, leaving them vulnerable to retirements, redistricting effects from the 2020 census, and generic ballot trends favoring opposition parties. No significant developments have emerged in the past week, but early models like those from Election Prediction Center reinforce this positioning amid expected voter backlash. Watch for special elections and 2026 primaries as early indicators.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$3,983,619 交易量
$3,983,619 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
赚 4% 收益
民主党
85%
共和党
16%
$3,983,619 交易量
$3,983,619 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
赚 4% 收益
民主党
$2,006,822 交易量
85%
共和党
$1,976,798 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84.5% implied probability to Democrats winning House control in the 2026 midterms, driven by historical midterm penalties where the incumbent president's party has lost an average of 27 seats since 1950, often flipping the chamber. Republicans hold a razor-thin majority—projected at 220-215—following their narrow 2024 victory despite Donald Trump's presidential win, leaving them vulnerable to retirements, redistricting effects from the 2020 census, and generic ballot trends favoring opposition parties. No significant developments have emerged in the past week, but early models like those from Election Prediction Center reinforce this positioning amid expected voter backlash. Watch for special elections and 2026 primaries as early indicators.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
市场开放时间： Jul 11, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
交易量
$3,983,619结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jul 11, 2025, 3:48 PM ETWe anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84.5% implied probability to Democrats winning House control in the 2026 midterms, driven by historical midterm penalties where the incumbent president's party has lost an average of 27 seats since 1950, often flipping the chamber. Republicans hold a razor-thin majority—projected at 220-215—following their narrow 2024 victory despite Donald Trump's presidential win, leaving them vulnerable to retirements, redistricting effects from the 2020 census, and generic ballot trends favoring opposition parties. No significant developments have emerged in the past week, but early models like those from Election Prediction Center reinforce this positioning amid expected voter backlash. Watch for special elections and 2026 primaries as early indicators.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
交易量
$3,983,619结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jul 11, 2025, 3:48 PM ETWe anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84.5% implied probability to Democrats winning House control in the 2026 midterms, driven by historical midterm penalties where the incumbent president's party has lost an average of 27 seats since 1950, often flipping the chamber. Republicans hold a razor-thin majority—projected at 220-215—following their narrow 2024 victory despite Donald Trump's presidential win, leaving them vulnerable to retirements, redistricting effects from the 2020 census, and generic ballot trends favoring opposition parties. No significant developments have emerged in the past week, but early models like those from Election Prediction Center reinforce this positioning amid expected voter backlash. Watch for special elections and 2026 primaries as early indicators.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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