A surge of Republican House retirement announcements in March—including Transportation Chair Sam Graves (March 27), Darrell Issa (March 6), Tony Gonzales (March 5), Burgess Owens (March 4), and Ryan Zinke (March 2)—has elevated the confirmed total to 37 incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026, per trackers like Ballotpedia and AP News. Trader consensus, with 36–39 (40.8%) edging 40–43 (34.7%), reflects this accelerated pace amid a narrow GOP majority vulnerable to midterm losses typical for the president's party, alongside opportunities for Senate or gubernatorial bids. The tight race persists due to early-cycle uncertainty and historical patterns where announcements peak later; further clusters from vulnerable incumbents or leadership shifts could push toward 44+, while a slowdown favors lower bins ahead of primary filing deadlines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于36–39 40.8%
40–43 36.2%
44人及以上 6.9%
28–31 6%
$32,766 交易量
$32,766 交易量
Aug 31, 2026
<24
5%
24–27
2%
28–31
6%
32–35
6%
36–39
41%
40–43
35%
44人及以上
9%
36–39 40.8%
40–43 36.2%
44人及以上 6.9%
28–31 6%
$32,766 交易量
$32,766 交易量
Aug 31, 2026
<24
$3,392 交易量
5%
24–27
$16,234 交易量
2%
28–31
$6,882 交易量
6%
32–35
$3,914 交易量
6%
36–39
$2,344 交易量
41%
40–43
$0 交易量
35%
44人及以上
$0 交易量
9%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.A surge of Republican House retirement announcements in March—including Transportation Chair Sam Graves (March 27), Darrell Issa (March 6), Tony Gonzales (March 5), Burgess Owens (March 4), and Ryan Zinke (March 2)—has elevated the confirmed total to 37 incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026, per trackers like Ballotpedia and AP News. Trader consensus, with 36–39 (40.8%) edging 40–43 (34.7%), reflects this accelerated pace amid a narrow GOP majority vulnerable to midterm losses typical for the president's party, alongside opportunities for Senate or gubernatorial bids. The tight race persists due to early-cycle uncertainty and historical patterns where announcements peak later; further clusters from vulnerable incumbents or leadership shifts could push toward 44+, while a slowdown favors lower bins ahead of primary filing deadlines.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
交易量
$32,766结束日期
Aug 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.A surge of Republican House retirement announcements in March—including Transportation Chair Sam Graves (March 27), Darrell Issa (March 6), Tony Gonzales (March 5), Burgess Owens (March 4), and Ryan Zinke (March 2)—has elevated the confirmed total to 37 incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026, per trackers like Ballotpedia and AP News. Trader consensus, with 36–39 (40.8%) edging 40–43 (34.7%), reflects this accelerated pace amid a narrow GOP majority vulnerable to midterm losses typical for the president's party, alongside opportunities for Senate or gubernatorial bids. The tight race persists due to early-cycle uncertainty and historical patterns where announcements peak later; further clusters from vulnerable incumbents or leadership shifts could push toward 44+, while a slowdown favors lower bins ahead of primary filing deadlines.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$32,766结束日期
Aug 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A surge of Republican House retirement announcements in March—including Transportation Chair Sam Graves (March 27), Darrell Issa (March 6), Tony Gonzales (March 5), Burgess Owens (March 4), and Ryan Zinke (March 2)—has elevated the confirmed total to 37 incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026, per trackers like Ballotpedia and AP News. Trader consensus, with 36–39 (40.8%) edging 40–43 (34.7%), reflects this accelerated pace amid a narrow GOP majority vulnerable to midterm losses typical for the president's party, alongside opportunities for Senate or gubernatorial bids. The tight race persists due to early-cycle uncertainty and historical patterns where announcements peak later; further clusters from vulnerable incumbents or leadership shifts could push toward 44+, while a slowdown favors lower bins ahead of primary filing deadlines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题