Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin 50% implied probability for Michigan voters approving a ballot initiative to convene a constitutional convention and rewrite the state constitution, capturing deep divisions over modernization needs versus risks to existing protections. Recent developments include the Rewrite the Rules coalition surpassing initial signature thresholds for the 2026 ballot amid heightened attention from the November 2024 elections, where voter turnout and swing voter priorities on abortion rights—secured by 2022's Proposal 3—and education funding proved pivotal. Competitive balance stems from bipartisan skepticism: Republicans wary of convention costs and Democrats fearing conservative overhauls, with polls showing independents split. Tipping points could include court rulings on petition validity, major endorsements, or shifts in economic sentiment influencing turnout.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
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Nov 3, 2026
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Nov 3, 2026
Michigan voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a measure which, if passed, would call a state constitutional convention to rewrite the state constitution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question passes according to Michigan electoral procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Michigan, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Michigan, specifically the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos).
Michigan voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a measure which, if passed, would call a state constitutional convention to rewrite the state constitution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question passes according to Michigan electoral procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Michigan, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Michigan, specifically the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos).Michigan voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a measure which, if passed, would call a state constitutional convention to rewrite the state constitution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question passes according to Michigan electoral procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Michigan, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Michigan, specifically the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question passes according to Michigan electoral procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Michigan, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Michigan, specifically the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos).
市场开放时间： Mar 2, 2026, 6:11 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 2, 2026, 6:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Michigan voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a measure which, if passed, would call a state constitutional convention to rewrite the state constitution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question passes according to Michigan electoral procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Michigan, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Michigan, specifically the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos).
Michigan voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a measure which, if passed, would call a state constitutional convention to rewrite the state constitution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question passes according to Michigan electoral procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Michigan, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Michigan, specifically the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos).Michigan voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a measure which, if passed, would call a state constitutional convention to rewrite the state constitution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question passes according to Michigan electoral procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Michigan, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Michigan, specifically the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question passes according to Michigan electoral procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Michigan, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Michigan, specifically the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos).
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 2, 2026, 6:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin 50% implied probability for Michigan voters approving a ballot initiative to convene a constitutional convention and rewrite the state constitution, capturing deep divisions over modernization needs versus risks to existing protections. Recent developments include the Rewrite the Rules coalition surpassing initial signature thresholds for the 2026 ballot amid heightened attention from the November 2024 elections, where voter turnout and swing voter priorities on abortion rights—secured by 2022's Proposal 3—and education funding proved pivotal. Competitive balance stems from bipartisan skepticism: Republicans wary of convention costs and Democrats fearing conservative overhauls, with polls showing independents split. Tipping points could include court rulings on petition validity, major endorsements, or shifts in economic sentiment influencing turnout.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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