Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin commands a decisive lead in California's 15th Congressional District House race, capturing around 70% of the vote against Republican challenger John Katakis following the November 5 election, per latest county tallies. This reflects CA-15's status as a Democratic stronghold in the Bay Area, bolstered by Mullin's incumbency advantage, strong fundraising, and alignment with key voting blocs amid minimal GOP turnout in this safe blue seat. Trader consensus prices a Democratic win at 94.5%, implying near-certainty absent major disruptions. Realistic challenges include improbable surges in late absentee ballots, successful recounts, or legal disputes over certification—expected by early December—but current margins and Associated Press projection leave scant room for reversal.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$23,460 交易量
$23,460 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
95%
共和党
5%
$23,460 交易量
$23,460 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$23,460 交易量
95%
共和党
$0 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin commands a decisive lead in California's 15th Congressional District House race, capturing around 70% of the vote against Republican challenger John Katakis following the November 5 election, per latest county tallies. This reflects CA-15's status as a Democratic stronghold in the Bay Area, bolstered by Mullin's incumbency advantage, strong fundraising, and alignment with key voting blocs amid minimal GOP turnout in this safe blue seat. Trader consensus prices a Democratic win at 94.5%, implying near-certainty absent major disruptions. Realistic challenges include improbable surges in late absentee ballots, successful recounts, or legal disputes over certification—expected by early December—but current margins and Associated Press projection leave scant room for reversal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$23,460结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin commands a decisive lead in California's 15th Congressional District House race, capturing around 70% of the vote against Republican challenger John Katakis following the November 5 election, per latest county tallies. This reflects CA-15's status as a Democratic stronghold in the Bay Area, bolstered by Mullin's incumbency advantage, strong fundraising, and alignment with key voting blocs amid minimal GOP turnout in this safe blue seat. Trader consensus prices a Democratic win at 94.5%, implying near-certainty absent major disruptions. Realistic challenges include improbable surges in late absentee ballots, successful recounts, or legal disputes over certification—expected by early December—but current margins and Associated Press projection leave scant room for reversal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$23,460结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin commands a decisive lead in California's 15th Congressional District House race, capturing around 70% of the vote against Republican challenger John Katakis following the November 5 election, per latest county tallies. This reflects CA-15's status as a Democratic stronghold in the Bay Area, bolstered by Mullin's incumbency advantage, strong fundraising, and alignment with key voting blocs amid minimal GOP turnout in this safe blue seat. Trader consensus prices a Democratic win at 94.5%, implying near-certainty absent major disruptions. Realistic challenges include improbable surges in late absentee ballots, successful recounts, or legal disputes over certification—expected by early December—but current margins and Associated Press projection leave scant room for reversal.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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