California’s 15th congressional district features a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and heavy Democratic voter registration in the San Mateo County and Bay Area region. Incumbent Representative Kevin Mullin, first elected in 2022, benefits from established name recognition, robust fundraising, and alignment with local voter patterns ahead of the June 2 top-two primary and November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, underscoring limited Republican infrastructure and organizational presence. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic nominee incorporates these structural factors. An unexpected primary outcome, major scandal affecting the leading candidate, or sharp national political realignment could still introduce uncertainty before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$114,310 交易量
$114,310 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
3%
$114,310 交易量
$114,310 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$92,581 交易量
95%
共和党
$21,729 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 15th congressional district features a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and heavy Democratic voter registration in the San Mateo County and Bay Area region. Incumbent Representative Kevin Mullin, first elected in 2022, benefits from established name recognition, robust fundraising, and alignment with local voter patterns ahead of the June 2 top-two primary and November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, underscoring limited Republican infrastructure and organizational presence. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic nominee incorporates these structural factors. An unexpected primary outcome, major scandal affecting the leading candidate, or sharp national political realignment could still introduce uncertainty before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$114,310结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 15th congressional district features a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and heavy Democratic voter registration in the San Mateo County and Bay Area region. Incumbent Representative Kevin Mullin, first elected in 2022, benefits from established name recognition, robust fundraising, and alignment with local voter patterns ahead of the June 2 top-two primary and November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, underscoring limited Republican infrastructure and organizational presence. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic nominee incorporates these structural factors. An unexpected primary outcome, major scandal affecting the leading candidate, or sharp national political realignment could still introduce uncertainty before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$114,310结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California’s 15th congressional district features a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and heavy Democratic voter registration in the San Mateo County and Bay Area region. Incumbent Representative Kevin Mullin, first elected in 2022, benefits from established name recognition, robust fundraising, and alignment with local voter patterns ahead of the June 2 top-two primary and November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, underscoring limited Republican infrastructure and organizational presence. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic nominee incorporates these structural factors. An unexpected primary outcome, major scandal affecting the leading candidate, or sharp national political realignment could still introduce uncertainty before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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