Trader consensus in the CA-15 House race heavily favors the Democratic Party at 94.5%, driven by the district's strong Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+24) in the Bay Area, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans over 2-to-1, and incumbent Eric Swalwell's dominant March primary win with 89% of the vote against token challengers. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with GOP nominee Antonio Ramirez Jr. lagging far behind in fundraising and visibility amid a non-competitive race rated "Safe Democratic" by all major forecasters. While the November 5 general election remains, scenarios like a massive national Republican wave, late Swalwell scandal, or unforeseen legal challenges could narrow odds, though structural advantages make upsets rare for such incumbents.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$19,435 交易量
$19,435 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
95%
共和党
5%
$19,435 交易量
$19,435 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$19,435 交易量
95%
共和党
$0 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus in the CA-15 House race heavily favors the Democratic Party at 94.5%, driven by the district's strong Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+24) in the Bay Area, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans over 2-to-1, and incumbent Eric Swalwell's dominant March primary win with 89% of the vote against token challengers. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with GOP nominee Antonio Ramirez Jr. lagging far behind in fundraising and visibility amid a non-competitive race rated "Safe Democratic" by all major forecasters. While the November 5 general election remains, scenarios like a massive national Republican wave, late Swalwell scandal, or unforeseen legal challenges could narrow odds, though structural advantages make upsets rare for such incumbents.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$19,435结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus in the CA-15 House race heavily favors the Democratic Party at 94.5%, driven by the district's strong Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+24) in the Bay Area, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans over 2-to-1, and incumbent Eric Swalwell's dominant March primary win with 89% of the vote against token challengers. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with GOP nominee Antonio Ramirez Jr. lagging far behind in fundraising and visibility amid a non-competitive race rated "Safe Democratic" by all major forecasters. While the November 5 general election remains, scenarios like a massive national Republican wave, late Swalwell scandal, or unforeseen legal challenges could narrow odds, though structural advantages make upsets rare for such incumbents.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$19,435结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus in the CA-15 House race heavily favors the Democratic Party at 94.5%, driven by the district's strong Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+24) in the Bay Area, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans over 2-to-1, and incumbent Eric Swalwell's dominant March primary win with 89% of the vote against token challengers. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with GOP nominee Antonio Ramirez Jr. lagging far behind in fundraising and visibility amid a non-competitive race rated "Safe Democratic" by all major forecasters. While the November 5 general election remains, scenarios like a massive national Republican wave, late Swalwell scandal, or unforeseen legal challenges could narrow odds, though structural advantages make upsets rare for such incumbents.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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