The district's entrenched Democratic lean, reinforced by voter registration advantages exceeding 50 points in key areas and a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+26, anchors the overwhelming trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory in the 2026 general election. Incumbent Kevin Mullin faces minimal opposition in the June primary, with Republican challengers drawing limited support in a seat that has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles. Redistricting adjustments under Proposition 50 preserved this profile, limiting any structural shifts. While a late-breaking scandal or unprecedented national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the gap, historical patterns and current polling trends indicate such developments would need to be exceptionally severe to alter the outcome before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$114,310 交易量
$114,310 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
3%
$114,310 交易量
$114,310 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$92,581 交易量
95%
共和党
$21,729 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's entrenched Democratic lean, reinforced by voter registration advantages exceeding 50 points in key areas and a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+26, anchors the overwhelming trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory in the 2026 general election. Incumbent Kevin Mullin faces minimal opposition in the June primary, with Republican challengers drawing limited support in a seat that has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles. Redistricting adjustments under Proposition 50 preserved this profile, limiting any structural shifts. While a late-breaking scandal or unprecedented national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the gap, historical patterns and current polling trends indicate such developments would need to be exceptionally severe to alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$114,310结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's entrenched Democratic lean, reinforced by voter registration advantages exceeding 50 points in key areas and a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+26, anchors the overwhelming trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory in the 2026 general election. Incumbent Kevin Mullin faces minimal opposition in the June primary, with Republican challengers drawing limited support in a seat that has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles. Redistricting adjustments under Proposition 50 preserved this profile, limiting any structural shifts. While a late-breaking scandal or unprecedented national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the gap, historical patterns and current polling trends indicate such developments would need to be exceptionally severe to alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$114,310结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's entrenched Democratic lean, reinforced by voter registration advantages exceeding 50 points in key areas and a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+26, anchors the overwhelming trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory in the 2026 general election. Incumbent Kevin Mullin faces minimal opposition in the June primary, with Republican challengers drawing limited support in a seat that has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles. Redistricting adjustments under Proposition 50 preserved this profile, limiting any structural shifts. While a late-breaking scandal or unprecedented national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the gap, historical patterns and current polling trends indicate such developments would need to be exceptionally severe to alter the outcome before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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