Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin holds a commanding position in California's 15th congressional district heading into the June 2, 2026 top-two primary and November general election, supported by the seat's consistent Democratic voter registration advantage and a Cook Political Report partisan voting index of roughly D+26. Multiple Democratic candidates are competing in the primary alongside a single Republican entrant, but historical margins exceeding 70 percent for the party reflect limited crossover appeal in this San Mateo County-centered district. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns the Democratic nominee overwhelming odds of retaining the seat, consistent with longstanding patterns in similarly safe California districts. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal, a well-funded Republican challenger gaining traction, or shifts in turnout could still introduce volatility before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$114,310 交易量
$114,310 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
3%
$114,310 交易量
$114,310 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$92,581 交易量
95%
共和党
$21,729 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin holds a commanding position in California's 15th congressional district heading into the June 2, 2026 top-two primary and November general election, supported by the seat's consistent Democratic voter registration advantage and a Cook Political Report partisan voting index of roughly D+26. Multiple Democratic candidates are competing in the primary alongside a single Republican entrant, but historical margins exceeding 70 percent for the party reflect limited crossover appeal in this San Mateo County-centered district. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns the Democratic nominee overwhelming odds of retaining the seat, consistent with longstanding patterns in similarly safe California districts. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal, a well-funded Republican challenger gaining traction, or shifts in turnout could still introduce volatility before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$114,310结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin holds a commanding position in California's 15th congressional district heading into the June 2, 2026 top-two primary and November general election, supported by the seat's consistent Democratic voter registration advantage and a Cook Political Report partisan voting index of roughly D+26. Multiple Democratic candidates are competing in the primary alongside a single Republican entrant, but historical margins exceeding 70 percent for the party reflect limited crossover appeal in this San Mateo County-centered district. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns the Democratic nominee overwhelming odds of retaining the seat, consistent with longstanding patterns in similarly safe California districts. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal, a well-funded Republican challenger gaining traction, or shifts in turnout could still introduce volatility before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$114,310结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin holds a commanding position in California's 15th congressional district heading into the June 2, 2026 top-two primary and November general election, supported by the seat's consistent Democratic voter registration advantage and a Cook Political Report partisan voting index of roughly D+26. Multiple Democratic candidates are competing in the primary alongside a single Republican entrant, but historical margins exceeding 70 percent for the party reflect limited crossover appeal in this San Mateo County-centered district. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns the Democratic nominee overwhelming odds of retaining the seat, consistent with longstanding patterns in similarly safe California districts. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal, a well-funded Republican challenger gaining traction, or shifts in turnout could still introduce volatility before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题