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选举·国会

2026年有多少共和党参议员没有参选？

Market icon
选举·国会

2026年有多少共和党参议员没有参选？

7 78%

11 10.0%

5 7.8%

8 6.8%

Polymarket

$72,862 交易量

7 78%

11 10.0%

5 7.8%

8 6.8%

Polymarket

$72,862 交易量

少于5人

$19,866 交易量

3%

5

$15,398 交易量

8%

6

$26,193 交易量

6%

7

$2,138 交易量

72%

8

$1,589 交易量

7%

9

$1,211 交易量

1%

10

$1,240 交易量

1%

11

$918 交易量

10%

12人以上

$4,308 交易量

1%

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms, with "7" shares trading at 63.5% implied probability, matching the exact tally of confirmed announcements among the 20 GOP-held Class II seats up for renewal. Oklahoma Sen. Alan Armstrong's March 24 retirement declaration, following Montana Sen. Steve Daines' surprise filing withdrawal on March 4, finalized the count after earlier exits by Sens. Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming, December 2025), Joni Ernst (Iowa, September 2025), Thom Tillis (North Carolina, June 2025), Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, running for governor since May 2025), and Mitch McConnell (Kentucky, February 2025). Absent further announcements ahead of summer primaries, this wave of retirements—driven by personal decisions amid a record GOP congressional turnover—has stabilized pricing, pricing lower odds on additional departures.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$72,862
结束日期
2026-08-31
市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms, with "7" shares trading at 63.5% implied probability, matching the exact tally of confirmed announcements among the 20 GOP-held Class II seats up for renewal. Oklahoma Sen. Alan Armstrong's March 24 retirement declaration, following Montana Sen. Steve Daines' surprise filing withdrawal on March 4, finalized the count after earlier exits by Sens. Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming, December 2025), Joni Ernst (Iowa, September 2025), Thom Tillis (North Carolina, June 2025), Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, running for governor since May 2025), and Mitch McConnell (Kentucky, February 2025). Absent further announcements ahead of summer primaries, this wave of retirements—driven by personal decisions amid a record GOP congressional turnover—has stabilized pricing, pricing lower odds on additional departures.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$72,862
结束日期
2026-08-31
市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2026年有多少共和党参议员没有参选？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 9 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"7"，概率为 72%，其次是"11"，概率为 10%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 72¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 72%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"2026年有多少共和党参议员没有参选？"已产生 $72.9K 的总交易量（自Dec 12, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2026年有多少共和党参议员没有参选？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 9 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2026年有多少共和党参议员没有参选？"的当前领先者是"7"，概率为 72%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 72%。紧随其后的结果是"11"，概率为 10%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2026年有多少共和党参议员没有参选？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。