Incumbent Sen. Gary Peters' retirement in January 2025 opened Michigan's Senate seat, yet trader consensus favors Democrats at 83% implied probability due to recent polls showing primary frontrunners Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow leading likely GOP nominee former Rep. Mike Rogers by 3–6 points in Emerson (January 2026) and other surveys. Stevens holds a fundraising edge with over $3 million cash-on-hand, bolstering her moderate profile amid private Democratic Senate leadership support. The August 4 primaries loom with a crowded Democratic field including Abdul El-Sayed, while Rogers enjoys Trump and NRSC endorsements. Toss-up ratings persist, but historical Republican struggles in Michigan Senate races since 1994 underpin the Democratic tilt, though national midterm dynamics or nominee choice could shift odds before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$100,740 交易量
$100,740 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
83%
共和党
15%
$100,740 交易量
$100,740 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$76,990 交易量
83%
共和党
$23,750 交易量
15%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Gary Peters' retirement in January 2025 opened Michigan's Senate seat, yet trader consensus favors Democrats at 83% implied probability due to recent polls showing primary frontrunners Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow leading likely GOP nominee former Rep. Mike Rogers by 3–6 points in Emerson (January 2026) and other surveys. Stevens holds a fundraising edge with over $3 million cash-on-hand, bolstering her moderate profile amid private Democratic Senate leadership support. The August 4 primaries loom with a crowded Democratic field including Abdul El-Sayed, while Rogers enjoys Trump and NRSC endorsements. Toss-up ratings persist, but historical Republican struggles in Michigan Senate races since 1994 underpin the Democratic tilt, though national midterm dynamics or nominee choice could shift odds before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
交易量
$100,740结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Gary Peters' retirement in January 2025 opened Michigan's Senate seat, yet trader consensus favors Democrats at 83% implied probability due to recent polls showing primary frontrunners Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow leading likely GOP nominee former Rep. Mike Rogers by 3–6 points in Emerson (January 2026) and other surveys. Stevens holds a fundraising edge with over $3 million cash-on-hand, bolstering her moderate profile amid private Democratic Senate leadership support. The August 4 primaries loom with a crowded Democratic field including Abdul El-Sayed, while Rogers enjoys Trump and NRSC endorsements. Toss-up ratings persist, but historical Republican struggles in Michigan Senate races since 1994 underpin the Democratic tilt, though national midterm dynamics or nominee choice could shift odds before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$100,740结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Gary Peters' retirement in January 2025 opened Michigan's Senate seat, yet trader consensus favors Democrats at 83% implied probability due to recent polls showing primary frontrunners Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow leading likely GOP nominee former Rep. Mike Rogers by 3–6 points in Emerson (January 2026) and other surveys. Stevens holds a fundraising edge with over $3 million cash-on-hand, bolstering her moderate profile amid private Democratic Senate leadership support. The August 4 primaries loom with a crowded Democratic field including Abdul El-Sayed, while Rogers enjoys Trump and NRSC endorsements. Toss-up ratings persist, but historical Republican struggles in Michigan Senate races since 1994 underpin the Democratic tilt, though national midterm dynamics or nominee choice could shift odds before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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