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匈牙利大选:热门选票获胜幅度

Market icon

匈牙利大选:热门选票获胜幅度

蒂萨9%以上 33%

蒂萨 3-6% 19%

蒂萨6-9% 17%

蒂萨 0-3% 10%

Polymarket

$1,154,628 交易量

蒂萨9%以上 33%

蒂萨 3-6% 19%

蒂萨6-9% 17%

蒂萨 0-3% 10%

Polymarket

$1,154,628 交易量

Market icon

蒂萨9%以上

$59,697 交易量

33%

Market icon

蒂萨6-9%

$13,152 交易量

17%

Market icon

蒂萨 3-6%

$36,878 交易量

19%

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蒂萨 0-3%

$20,821 交易量

10%

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Fidesz-KDNP 0-3%

$47,096 交易量

9%

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Fidesz-KDNP 3-6%

$45,173 交易量

7%

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Fidesz-KDNP 6-9%

$434,694 交易量

5%

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青民盟-基民党 9%+

$483,302 交易量

5%

Market icon

其他

$13,816 交易量

1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Recent opinion polls for Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election show the opposition Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, maintaining a lead over incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's Fidesz-KDNP alliance among decided voters, with margins ranging from 9 points (Republikon, March 23-26) to 23 points (Medián, March 17-20) in independent surveys—widening from prior months amid economic stagnation, cost-of-living pressures, and corruption concerns. Government-aligned polls like Nézőpont depict closer races, highlighting methodological divergences that traders weigh via skin-in-the-game consensus favoring Tisza popular vote wins exceeding 9%. High expected turnout could amplify urban Tisza support versus rural Fidesz strongholds, though the single-member district system may yield disproportionate seats; final rallies and undecideds remain pivotal swing factors.

Recent opinion polls for Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election show the opposition Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, maintaining a lead over incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's Fidesz-KDNP alliance among decided voters, with margins ranging from 9 points (Republikon, March 23-26) to 23 points (Medián, March 17-20) in independent surveys—widening from prior months amid economic stagnation, cost-of-living pressures, and corruption concerns. Government-aligned polls like Nézőpont depict closer races, highlighting methodological divergences that traders weigh via skin-in-the-game consensus favoring Tisza popular vote wins exceeding 9%. High expected turnout could amplify urban Tisza support versus rural Fidesz strongholds, though the single-member district system may yield disproportionate seats; final rallies and undecideds remain pivotal swing factors.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Recent opinion polls for Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election show the opposition Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, maintaining a lead over incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's Fidesz-KDNP alliance among decided voters, with margins ranging from 9 points (Republikon, March 23-26) to 23 points (Medián, March 17-20) in independent surveys—widening from prior months amid economic stagnation, cost-of-living pressures, and corruption concerns. Government-aligned polls like Nézőpont depict closer races, highlighting methodological divergences that traders weigh via skin-in-the-game consensus favoring Tisza popular vote wins exceeding 9%. High expected turnout could amplify urban Tisza support versus rural Fidesz strongholds, though the single-member district system may yield disproportionate seats; final rallies and undecideds remain pivotal swing factors.

Recent opinion polls for Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election show the opposition Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, maintaining a lead over incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's Fidesz-KDNP alliance among decided voters, with margins ranging from 9 points (Republikon, March 23-26) to 23 points (Medián, March 17-20) in independent surveys—widening from prior months amid economic stagnation, cost-of-living pressures, and corruption concerns. Government-aligned polls like Nézőpont depict closer races, highlighting methodological divergences that traders weigh via skin-in-the-game consensus favoring Tisza popular vote wins exceeding 9%. High expected turnout could amplify urban Tisza support versus rural Fidesz strongholds, though the single-member district system may yield disproportionate seats; final rallies and undecideds remain pivotal swing factors.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"匈牙利大选:热门选票获胜幅度"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 9 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"蒂萨9%以上",概率为 33%,其次是"蒂萨 3-6%",概率为 19%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 33¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 33%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"匈牙利大选:热门选票获胜幅度"已产生 $1.2 million 的总交易量(自Mar 5, 2026市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"匈牙利大选:热门选票获胜幅度"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 9 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"匈牙利大选:热门选票获胜幅度"的当前领先者是"蒂萨9%以上",概率为 33%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 33%。紧随其后的结果是"蒂萨 3-6%",概率为 19%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"匈牙利大选:热门选票获胜幅度"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。