United Russia leads trader consensus at 70.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its incumbency advantage, dominance in single-member districts, and consistent 30-55% leads in recent party-list polls from FOM and VCIOM despite high abstention rates around 30%. Pro-Kremlin pollster VCIOM's March surveys show New People surging to second place at 10-13%—its strongest yet—elevating its odds to 20.9% as a potential beneficiary of Kremlin-orchestrated public sparring among parties to energize turnout. LDPR and KPRF hover at 9-14% in polls but lag in seat projections due to the 5% proportional threshold and ER's organizational edge; lower odds for SRZP, Rodina, and Civic Platform align with their sub-6% support. Economic pressures have softened ER ratings slightly since February, yet no developments threaten its supermajority path absent major shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于统一俄罗斯党（ER） 71%
新人民党（NL） 21.0%
俄罗斯自由民主党（LDPR） 5.8%
俄罗斯联邦共产党（KPRF） 1.3%
$4,392,680 交易量
$4,392,680 交易量
Sep 30, 2026
统一俄罗斯党（ER）
71%
新人民党（NL）
21%
俄罗斯自由民主党（LDPR）
6%
俄罗斯联邦共产党（KPRF）
1%
公正俄罗斯——为了真理党（SRZP）
1%
罗迪纳
<1%
公民平台党（GP）
<1%
统一俄罗斯党（ER） 71%
新人民党（NL） 21.0%
俄罗斯自由民主党（LDPR） 5.8%
俄罗斯联邦共产党（KPRF） 1.3%
$4,392,680 交易量
$4,392,680 交易量
Sep 30, 2026
统一俄罗斯党（ER）
$1,215,566 交易量
71%
新人民党（NL）
$276,708 交易量
21%
俄罗斯自由民主党（LDPR）
$2,034,112 交易量
6%
俄罗斯联邦共产党（KPRF）
$254,599 交易量
1%
公正俄罗斯——为了真理党（SRZP）
$226,400 交易量
1%
罗迪纳
$195,922 交易量
<1%
公民平台党（GP）
$189,372 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.United Russia leads trader consensus at 70.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its incumbency advantage, dominance in single-member districts, and consistent 30-55% leads in recent party-list polls from FOM and VCIOM despite high abstention rates around 30%. Pro-Kremlin pollster VCIOM's March surveys show New People surging to second place at 10-13%—its strongest yet—elevating its odds to 20.9% as a potential beneficiary of Kremlin-orchestrated public sparring among parties to energize turnout. LDPR and KPRF hover at 9-14% in polls but lag in seat projections due to the 5% proportional threshold and ER's organizational edge; lower odds for SRZP, Rodina, and Civic Platform align with their sub-6% support. Economic pressures have softened ER ratings slightly since February, yet no developments threaten its supermajority path absent major shifts.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
市场开放时间： Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
交易量
$4,392,680结束日期
Sep 20, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.United Russia leads trader consensus at 70.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its incumbency advantage, dominance in single-member districts, and consistent 30-55% leads in recent party-list polls from FOM and VCIOM despite high abstention rates around 30%. Pro-Kremlin pollster VCIOM's March surveys show New People surging to second place at 10-13%—its strongest yet—elevating its odds to 20.9% as a potential beneficiary of Kremlin-orchestrated public sparring among parties to energize turnout. LDPR and KPRF hover at 9-14% in polls but lag in seat projections due to the 5% proportional threshold and ER's organizational edge; lower odds for SRZP, Rodina, and Civic Platform align with their sub-6% support. Economic pressures have softened ER ratings slightly since February, yet no developments threaten its supermajority path absent major shifts.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
交易量
$4,392,680结束日期
Sep 20, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...United Russia leads trader consensus at 70.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its incumbency advantage, dominance in single-member districts, and consistent 30-55% leads in recent party-list polls from FOM and VCIOM despite high abstention rates around 30%. Pro-Kremlin pollster VCIOM's March surveys show New People surging to second place at 10-13%—its strongest yet—elevating its odds to 20.9% as a potential beneficiary of Kremlin-orchestrated public sparring among parties to energize turnout. LDPR and KPRF hover at 9-14% in polls but lag in seat projections due to the 5% proportional threshold and ER's organizational edge; lower odds for SRZP, Rodina, and Civic Platform align with their sub-6% support. Economic pressures have softened ER ratings slightly since February, yet no developments threaten its supermajority path absent major shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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