Lebanese parliament's March 9 vote, with 76 lawmakers approving a two-year mandate extension amid intensifying Israel-Hezbollah conflict and southern displacement, has postponed the May 2026 parliamentary elections to 2028, fostering trader consensus on a wide-open field where no party exceeds 14% implied probability for most seats. Lebanese Forces leads at 13.5% due to its strong anti-Hezbollah stance appealing to Christian voters and opposition "change" blocs fragmented since 2022, while Ba'ath's 7.3% reflects niche pro-Syria support; Hezbollah and Amal trail below 3% from war setbacks eroding Shia dominance. Consolidation could hinge on legal challenges to the delay, diaspora registration momentum, Shia opposition gains, or Hariri-led Sunni revival, all under Lebanon's confessional proportional representation system.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于黎巴嫩力量党（LF） 14%
黎巴嫩阿拉伯社会主义复兴党（复兴党） 7.8%
真主党（Hezb） 2.4%
阿迈勒运动（阿迈勒） 1.7%
$210,983 交易量
$210,983 交易量
May 31, 2026
黎巴嫩力量党（LF）
14%
黎巴嫩阿拉伯社会主义复兴党（复兴党）
8%
真主党（Hezb）
2%
阿迈勒运动（阿迈勒）
2%
塔卡杜姆党
2%
ReLebanon
1%
尊严运动（DM）
1%
伊斯兰慈善项目协会（ICPA）
1%
亚美尼亚革命联盟（ARF）
1%
卡塔伊布党（Kataeb）
1%
进步社会党（PSP）
1%
独立运动
1%
自由爱国运动（FPM）
<1%
联盟党（UP）
<1%
马拉达运动
<1%
国家自由党（NLP）
<1%
受欢迎的纳赛尔主义者组织（PNO）
<1%
拉娜 – 社会民主党（拉娜）
<1%
瓦塔尼联盟（Watani）
<1%
伊斯兰集团（IG）
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
<1%
全国对话党（NDP）
<1%
玛达党（Mada）
<1%
黎巴嫩力量党（LF） 14%
黎巴嫩阿拉伯社会主义复兴党（复兴党） 7.8%
真主党（Hezb） 2.4%
阿迈勒运动（阿迈勒） 1.7%
$210,983 交易量
$210,983 交易量
May 31, 2026
黎巴嫩力量党（LF）
$135,428 交易量
14%
黎巴嫩阿拉伯社会主义复兴党（复兴党）
$2,967 交易量
8%
真主党（Hezb）
$41,200 交易量
2%
阿迈勒运动（阿迈勒）
$26,786 交易量
2%
塔卡杜姆党
$0 交易量
2%
ReLebanon
$0 交易量
1%
尊严运动（DM）
$0 交易量
1%
伊斯兰慈善项目协会（ICPA）
$0 交易量
1%
亚美尼亚革命联盟（ARF）
$4,602 交易量
1%
卡塔伊布党（Kataeb）
$0 交易量
1%
进步社会党（PSP）
$0 交易量
1%
独立运动
$0 交易量
1%
自由爱国运动（FPM）
$0 交易量
<1%
联盟党（UP）
$0 交易量
<1%
马拉达运动
$0 交易量
<1%
国家自由党（NLP）
$0 交易量
<1%
受欢迎的纳赛尔主义者组织（PNO）
$0 交易量
<1%
拉娜 – 社会民主党（拉娜）
$0 交易量
<1%
瓦塔尼联盟（Watani）
$0 交易量
<1%
伊斯兰集团（IG）
$0 交易量
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
$0 交易量
<1%
全国对话党（NDP）
$0 交易量
<1%
玛达党（Mada）
$0 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanese parliament's March 9 vote, with 76 lawmakers approving a two-year mandate extension amid intensifying Israel-Hezbollah conflict and southern displacement, has postponed the May 2026 parliamentary elections to 2028, fostering trader consensus on a wide-open field where no party exceeds 14% implied probability for most seats. Lebanese Forces leads at 13.5% due to its strong anti-Hezbollah stance appealing to Christian voters and opposition "change" blocs fragmented since 2022, while Ba'ath's 7.3% reflects niche pro-Syria support; Hezbollah and Amal trail below 3% from war setbacks eroding Shia dominance. Consolidation could hinge on legal challenges to the delay, diaspora registration momentum, Shia opposition gains, or Hariri-led Sunni revival, all under Lebanon's confessional proportional representation system.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
交易量
$210,983结束日期
May 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanese parliament's March 9 vote, with 76 lawmakers approving a two-year mandate extension amid intensifying Israel-Hezbollah conflict and southern displacement, has postponed the May 2026 parliamentary elections to 2028, fostering trader consensus on a wide-open field where no party exceeds 14% implied probability for most seats. Lebanese Forces leads at 13.5% due to its strong anti-Hezbollah stance appealing to Christian voters and opposition "change" blocs fragmented since 2022, while Ba'ath's 7.3% reflects niche pro-Syria support; Hezbollah and Amal trail below 3% from war setbacks eroding Shia dominance. Consolidation could hinge on legal challenges to the delay, diaspora registration momentum, Shia opposition gains, or Hariri-led Sunni revival, all under Lebanon's confessional proportional representation system.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
交易量
$210,983结束日期
May 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lebanese parliament's March 9 vote, with 76 lawmakers approving a two-year mandate extension amid intensifying Israel-Hezbollah conflict and southern displacement, has postponed the May 2026 parliamentary elections to 2028, fostering trader consensus on a wide-open field where no party exceeds 14% implied probability for most seats. Lebanese Forces leads at 13.5% due to its strong anti-Hezbollah stance appealing to Christian voters and opposition "change" blocs fragmented since 2022, while Ba'ath's 7.3% reflects niche pro-Syria support; Hezbollah and Amal trail below 3% from war setbacks eroding Shia dominance. Consolidation could hinge on legal challenges to the delay, diaspora registration momentum, Shia opposition gains, or Hariri-led Sunni revival, all under Lebanon's confessional proportional representation system.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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