Trader consensus positions Libre – Liberty and Democracy (LIBRE) as the frontrunner at 48.5% implied probability for Bolivia's 2026 gubernatorial elections, driven by the Movement for Socialism (MAS-IPSP)'s collapse to 6.9% amid its bitter internal rift between President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales. Morales' recent expulsion from MAS, coupled with supporter-led road blockades and clashes escalating into a declared state of siege in November 2024, has eroded ruling party cohesion and national support. Regional opposition parties like Christian Democratic Party (PDC) at 22%, Popular Alliance (AP) at 21.5%, and Autonomy for Bolivia – Súmate (APB Súmate) at 21% gain from Santa Cruz autonomy drives and anti-incumbent backlash, while Unity Bloc (UNIDAD) trails at 11%. The 2025 presidential vote will likely influence departmental alignments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于统一阵线（UNIDAD） 11%
人民联盟（AP） 9%
基督教民主党（PDC） 9%
争取社会主义运动（MAS-IPSP） 8.0%
$0.00 交易量
$0.00 交易量
Mar 22, 2026
统一阵线（UNIDAD）
11%
人民联盟（AP）
22%
基督教民主党（PDC）
22%
争取社会主义运动（MAS-IPSP）
7%
玻利维亚自治联盟－苏马特（APB Súmate）
21%
自由－自由与民主（LIBRE）
49%
统一阵线（UNIDAD） 11%
人民联盟（AP） 9%
基督教民主党（PDC） 9%
争取社会主义运动（MAS-IPSP） 8.0%
$0.00 交易量
$0.00 交易量
Mar 22, 2026
统一阵线（UNIDAD）
$0 交易量
11%
人民联盟（AP）
$0 交易量
22%
基督教民主党（PDC）
$0 交易量
22%
争取社会主义运动（MAS-IPSP）
$0 交易量
7%
玻利维亚自治联盟－苏马特（APB Súmate）
$0 交易量
21%
自由－自由与民主（LIBRE）
$0 交易量
49%
Bolivia’s gubernatorial elections are scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most gubernatorial elections for Bolivia’s departments during these elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Bolivia’s departments include the following:
La Paz, Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, Oruro, Potosí, Tarija, Beni, Pando, and Chuquisaca.
A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of gubernatorial elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name (not abbreviation) comes first in alphabetical order.
This market includes any potential second round. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections aren’t known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).Trader consensus positions Libre – Liberty and Democracy (LIBRE) as the frontrunner at 48.5% implied probability for Bolivia's 2026 gubernatorial elections, driven by the Movement for Socialism (MAS-IPSP)'s collapse to 6.9% amid its bitter internal rift between President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales. Morales' recent expulsion from MAS, coupled with supporter-led road blockades and clashes escalating into a declared state of siege in November 2024, has eroded ruling party cohesion and national support. Regional opposition parties like Christian Democratic Party (PDC) at 22%, Popular Alliance (AP) at 21.5%, and Autonomy for Bolivia – Súmate (APB Súmate) at 21% gain from Santa Cruz autonomy drives and anti-incumbent backlash, while Unity Bloc (UNIDAD) trails at 11%. The 2025 presidential vote will likely influence departmental alignments.
Bolivia’s gubernatorial elections are scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most gubernatorial elections for Bolivia’s departments during these elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Bolivia’s departments include the following:
La Paz, Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, Oruro, Potosí, Tarija, Beni, Pando, and Chuquisaca.
A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of gubernatorial elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name (not abbreviation) comes first in alphabetical order.
This market includes any potential second round. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections aren’t known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most gubernatorial elections for Bolivia’s departments during these elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Bolivia’s departments include the following:
La Paz, Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, Oruro, Potosí, Tarija, Beni, Pando, and Chuquisaca.
A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of gubernatorial elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name (not abbreviation) comes first in alphabetical order.
This market includes any potential second round. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections aren’t known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 5:25 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Mar 22, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 5:25 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Bolivia’s gubernatorial elections are scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most gubernatorial elections for Bolivia’s departments during these elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Bolivia’s departments include the following:
La Paz, Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, Oruro, Potosí, Tarija, Beni, Pando, and Chuquisaca.
A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of gubernatorial elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name (not abbreviation) comes first in alphabetical order.
This market includes any potential second round. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections aren’t known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).Trader consensus positions Libre – Liberty and Democracy (LIBRE) as the frontrunner at 48.5% implied probability for Bolivia's 2026 gubernatorial elections, driven by the Movement for Socialism (MAS-IPSP)'s collapse to 6.9% amid its bitter internal rift between President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales. Morales' recent expulsion from MAS, coupled with supporter-led road blockades and clashes escalating into a declared state of siege in November 2024, has eroded ruling party cohesion and national support. Regional opposition parties like Christian Democratic Party (PDC) at 22%, Popular Alliance (AP) at 21.5%, and Autonomy for Bolivia – Súmate (APB Súmate) at 21% gain from Santa Cruz autonomy drives and anti-incumbent backlash, while Unity Bloc (UNIDAD) trails at 11%. The 2025 presidential vote will likely influence departmental alignments.
Bolivia’s gubernatorial elections are scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most gubernatorial elections for Bolivia’s departments during these elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Bolivia’s departments include the following:
La Paz, Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, Oruro, Potosí, Tarija, Beni, Pando, and Chuquisaca.
A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of gubernatorial elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name (not abbreviation) comes first in alphabetical order.
This market includes any potential second round. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections aren’t known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most gubernatorial elections for Bolivia’s departments during these elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Bolivia’s departments include the following:
La Paz, Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, Oruro, Potosí, Tarija, Beni, Pando, and Chuquisaca.
A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of gubernatorial elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name (not abbreviation) comes first in alphabetical order.
This market includes any potential second round. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections aren’t known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Bolivian gubernatorial elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
交易量
$0结束日期
Mar 22, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 5:25 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus positions Libre – Liberty and Democracy (LIBRE) as the frontrunner at 48.5% implied probability for Bolivia's 2026 gubernatorial elections, driven by the Movement for Socialism (MAS-IPSP)'s collapse to 6.9% amid its bitter internal rift between President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales. Morales' recent expulsion from MAS, coupled with supporter-led road blockades and clashes escalating into a declared state of siege in November 2024, has eroded ruling party cohesion and national support. Regional opposition parties like Christian Democratic Party (PDC) at 22%, Popular Alliance (AP) at 21.5%, and Autonomy for Bolivia – Súmate (APB Súmate) at 21% gain from Santa Cruz autonomy drives and anti-incumbent backlash, while Unity Bloc (UNIDAD) trails at 11%. The 2025 presidential vote will likely influence departmental alignments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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