Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new centre-left coalition led by former President Rumen Radev—who resigned in January 2026 to enter politics—holds commanding poll leads of 28-31% in late March surveys from Gallup International, Alpha Research, and Market Links, projecting 85-93 seats in the 240-seat National Assembly, well ahead of GERB–SDS at 21-23% (64-70 seats). This reflects trader consensus amid Bulgaria's eighth snap parliamentary election since 2021, fueled by voter fatigue with instability, corruption scandals, and failed coalitions following the Zhelyazkov government's December 2025 collapse. With the April 19 vote approaching, PB's position appears solid under proportional representation, though scenarios like a late Radev scandal, polling error, or undecided voters (10-15%) breaking toward GERB–SDS could challenge the outcome despite no party nearing the 121-seat majority threshold.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于PB 91.5%
GERB–SDS 5.6%
PP–DB <1%
ITN <1%
$99,799 交易量
$99,799 交易量
2026-04-19
PB
92%
GERB–SDS
6%
PP–DB
1%
ITN
<1%
Velichie
<1%
APS
<1%
MECH
<1%
复兴党
<1%
DPS
<1%
BSP-联合左翼
<1%
PB 91.5%
GERB–SDS 5.6%
PP–DB <1%
ITN <1%
$99,799 交易量
$99,799 交易量
2026-04-19
PB
$26,480 交易量
92%
GERB–SDS
$12,361 交易量
6%
PP–DB
$9,684 交易量
1%
ITN
$8,150 交易量
<1%
Velichie
$7,402 交易量
<1%
APS
$9,908 交易量
<1%
MECH
$8,224 交易量
<1%
复兴党
$6,441 交易量
<1%
DPS
$4,252 交易量
<1%
BSP-联合左翼
$6,898 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new centre-left coalition led by former President Rumen Radev—who resigned in January 2026 to enter politics—holds commanding poll leads of 28-31% in late March surveys from Gallup International, Alpha Research, and Market Links, projecting 85-93 seats in the 240-seat National Assembly, well ahead of GERB–SDS at 21-23% (64-70 seats). This reflects trader consensus amid Bulgaria's eighth snap parliamentary election since 2021, fueled by voter fatigue with instability, corruption scandals, and failed coalitions following the Zhelyazkov government's December 2025 collapse. With the April 19 vote approaching, PB's position appears solid under proportional representation, though scenarios like a late Radev scandal, polling error, or undecided voters (10-15%) breaking toward GERB–SDS could challenge the outcome despite no party nearing the 121-seat majority threshold.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
市场开放时间： Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ET
交易量
$99,799结束日期
2026-04-19市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new centre-left coalition led by former President Rumen Radev—who resigned in January 2026 to enter politics—holds commanding poll leads of 28-31% in late March surveys from Gallup International, Alpha Research, and Market Links, projecting 85-93 seats in the 240-seat National Assembly, well ahead of GERB–SDS at 21-23% (64-70 seats). This reflects trader consensus amid Bulgaria's eighth snap parliamentary election since 2021, fueled by voter fatigue with instability, corruption scandals, and failed coalitions following the Zhelyazkov government's December 2025 collapse. With the April 19 vote approaching, PB's position appears solid under proportional representation, though scenarios like a late Radev scandal, polling error, or undecided voters (10-15%) breaking toward GERB–SDS could challenge the outcome despite no party nearing the 121-seat majority threshold.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
交易量
$99,799结束日期
2026-04-19市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new centre-left coalition led by former President Rumen Radev—who resigned in January 2026 to enter politics—holds commanding poll leads of 28-31% in late March surveys from Gallup International, Alpha Research, and Market Links, projecting 85-93 seats in the 240-seat National Assembly, well ahead of GERB–SDS at 21-23% (64-70 seats). This reflects trader consensus amid Bulgaria's eighth snap parliamentary election since 2021, fueled by voter fatigue with instability, corruption scandals, and failed coalitions following the Zhelyazkov government's December 2025 collapse. With the April 19 vote approaching, PB's position appears solid under proportional representation, though scenarios like a late Radev scandal, polling error, or undecided voters (10-15%) breaking toward GERB–SDS could challenge the outcome despite no party nearing the 121-seat majority threshold.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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