Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new centre-left alliance led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus at over 90% implied probability of securing the most seats in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, driven by consistent late-March polls showing 28-31% support amid a fragmented field where GERB–SDS trails at 21-23% and others below 11%. Radev's resignation in January 2026 to form PB has mobilized non-voters and capitalized on public frustration with repeated government failures—the eighth election since 2021 following the Zhelyazkov cabinet's collapse over budget protests. This polling dominance reflects skin-in-the-game bets on PB's projected 70-90 seats under proportional representation. Challenges include a late GERB surge, higher turnout favoring rivals, or scandal, though structural fragmentation favors the leader.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于PB 91.5%
GERB–SDS 5.6%
PP–DB <1%
ITN <1%
$99,799 交易量
$99,799 交易量
2026-04-19
PB
92%
GERB–SDS
6%
PP–DB
1%
ITN
<1%
Velichie
<1%
APS
<1%
MECH
<1%
复兴党
<1%
DPS
<1%
BSP-联合左翼
<1%
PB 91.5%
GERB–SDS 5.6%
PP–DB <1%
ITN <1%
$99,799 交易量
$99,799 交易量
2026-04-19
PB
$26,480 交易量
92%
GERB–SDS
$12,361 交易量
6%
PP–DB
$9,684 交易量
1%
ITN
$8,150 交易量
<1%
Velichie
$7,402 交易量
<1%
APS
$9,908 交易量
<1%
MECH
$8,224 交易量
<1%
复兴党
$6,441 交易量
<1%
DPS
$4,252 交易量
<1%
BSP-联合左翼
$6,898 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new centre-left alliance led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus at over 90% implied probability of securing the most seats in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, driven by consistent late-March polls showing 28-31% support amid a fragmented field where GERB–SDS trails at 21-23% and others below 11%. Radev's resignation in January 2026 to form PB has mobilized non-voters and capitalized on public frustration with repeated government failures—the eighth election since 2021 following the Zhelyazkov cabinet's collapse over budget protests. This polling dominance reflects skin-in-the-game bets on PB's projected 70-90 seats under proportional representation. Challenges include a late GERB surge, higher turnout favoring rivals, or scandal, though structural fragmentation favors the leader.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
市场开放时间： Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ET
交易量
$99,799结束日期
2026-04-19市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new centre-left alliance led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus at over 90% implied probability of securing the most seats in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, driven by consistent late-March polls showing 28-31% support amid a fragmented field where GERB–SDS trails at 21-23% and others below 11%. Radev's resignation in January 2026 to form PB has mobilized non-voters and capitalized on public frustration with repeated government failures—the eighth election since 2021 following the Zhelyazkov cabinet's collapse over budget protests. This polling dominance reflects skin-in-the-game bets on PB's projected 70-90 seats under proportional representation. Challenges include a late GERB surge, higher turnout favoring rivals, or scandal, though structural fragmentation favors the leader.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
交易量
$99,799结束日期
2026-04-19市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new centre-left alliance led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus at over 90% implied probability of securing the most seats in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, driven by consistent late-March polls showing 28-31% support amid a fragmented field where GERB–SDS trails at 21-23% and others below 11%. Radev's resignation in January 2026 to form PB has mobilized non-voters and capitalized on public frustration with repeated government failures—the eighth election since 2021 following the Zhelyazkov cabinet's collapse over budget protests. This polling dominance reflects skin-in-the-game bets on PB's projected 70-90 seats under proportional representation. Challenges include a late GERB surge, higher turnout favoring rivals, or scandal, though structural fragmentation favors the leader.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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