All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) dominates trader consensus at 77.5% implied probability for the West Bengal Legislative Assembly winner, driven by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's strong incumbency advantage and AITC's sweep of 29 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state during the 2024 general elections, alongside consistent victories in recent bypolls like Kaliganj and Ranaghat Dakshin. BJP trails at 21% as the primary challenger, bolstered by national momentum but hampered by organizational challenges and weaker rural outreach, per latest survey aggregators showing AITC leads of 10-15 points in 2026 projections. Marginal parties like CPI(M), CPI, INC, and BGPM languish below 0.2% due to their diminished vote shares below 5% in recent contests, reflecting voter consolidation around the AITC-BJP bipolar dynamic. Upcoming municipal polls could further calibrate these odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于全印草根大会党（AITC） 78%
印度人民党（BJP） 21%
印度国民大会党（INC） <1%
印度共产党（CPI） <1%
$53,524 交易量
$53,524 交易量
May 7, 2026
全印草根大会党（AITC）
78%
印度人民党（BJP）
21%
印度国民大会党（INC）
<1%
印度共产党（CPI）
<1%
CPI(M)
<1%
印度廓尔喀民主阵线（BGPM）
<1%
全印草根大会党（AITC） 78%
印度人民党（BJP） 21%
印度国民大会党（INC） <1%
印度共产党（CPI） <1%
$53,524 交易量
$53,524 交易量
May 7, 2026
全印草根大会党（AITC）
$20,784 交易量
78%
印度人民党（BJP）
$16,933 交易量
21%
印度国民大会党（INC）
$0 交易量
<1%
印度共产党（CPI）
$15,808 交易量
<1%
CPI(M)
$0 交易量
<1%
印度廓尔喀民主阵线（BGPM）
$0 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in West Bengal, India, in March–April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next West Bengal Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the West Bengal Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituents (AC).Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in West Bengal, India, in March–April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next West Bengal Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the West Bengal Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituents (AC).Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in West Bengal, India, in March–April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next West Bengal Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the West Bengal Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituents (AC).Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in West Bengal, India, in March–April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next West Bengal Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the West Bengal Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituents (AC).Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in West Bengal, India, in March–April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next West Bengal Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the West Bengal Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituents (AC).Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in West Bengal, India, in March–April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next West Bengal Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the West Bengal Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituents (AC).
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in West Bengal, India, in March–April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next West Bengal Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the West Bengal Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituents (AC).Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in West Bengal, India, in March–April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next West Bengal Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the West Bengal Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituents (AC).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next West Bengal Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the West Bengal Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituents (AC).
市场开放时间： Dec 23, 2025, 3:13 PM ET
交易量
$53,524结束日期
May 7, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 23, 2025, 3:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in West Bengal, India, in March–April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next West Bengal Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the West Bengal Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituents (AC).Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in West Bengal, India, in March–April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next West Bengal Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the West Bengal Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituents (AC).Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in West Bengal, India, in March–April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next West Bengal Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the West Bengal Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituents (AC).Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in West Bengal, India, in March–April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next West Bengal Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the West Bengal Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituents (AC).Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in West Bengal, India, in March–April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next West Bengal Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the West Bengal Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituents (AC).Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in West Bengal, India, in March–April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next West Bengal Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the West Bengal Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituents (AC).
交易量
$53,524结束日期
May 7, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 23, 2025, 3:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) dominates trader consensus at 77.5% implied probability for the West Bengal Legislative Assembly winner, driven by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's strong incumbency advantage and AITC's sweep of 29 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state during the 2024 general elections, alongside consistent victories in recent bypolls like Kaliganj and Ranaghat Dakshin. BJP trails at 21% as the primary challenger, bolstered by national momentum but hampered by organizational challenges and weaker rural outreach, per latest survey aggregators showing AITC leads of 10-15 points in 2026 projections. Marginal parties like CPI(M), CPI, INC, and BGPM languish below 0.2% due to their diminished vote shares below 5% in recent contests, reflecting voter consolidation around the AITC-BJP bipolar dynamic. Upcoming municipal polls could further calibrate these odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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