Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of concrete military mobilizations or escalatory signals from Beijing. Recent PLA exercises encircling Taiwan after President Lai Ching-te's May 2024 inauguration—described by Chinese officials as responses to "separatist" rhetoric—have subsided without amphibious buildup, per defense analyses. U.S. deterrence via arms packages, alliances like AUKUS, and Taiwan's defenses raise invasion costs, while China's economic slowdown and semiconductor supply chain ties discourage conflict. PLA modernization timelines suggest limited readiness for cross-strait assault before 2027, supporting stable low-risk pricing absent major catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$73,768 交易量
$73,768 交易量
Sep 30, 2026
是
$73,768 交易量
$73,768 交易量
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
交易量
$73,768结束日期
Sep 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$73,768结束日期
Sep 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of concrete military mobilizations or escalatory signals from Beijing. Recent PLA exercises encircling Taiwan after President Lai Ching-te's May 2024 inauguration—described by Chinese officials as responses to "separatist" rhetoric—have subsided without amphibious buildup, per defense analyses. U.S. deterrence via arms packages, alliances like AUKUS, and Taiwan's defenses raise invasion costs, while China's economic slowdown and semiconductor supply chain ties discourage conflict. PLA modernization timelines suggest limited readiness for cross-strait assault before 2027, supporting stable low-risk pricing absent major catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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