U.S. intelligence assessments released March 18, 2026, concluded China is not planning an invasion of Taiwan in 2027 and prefers unification without force, citing prohibitive economic and military costs amid ongoing deterrence by U.S. and allies. This view, echoed in the ODNI's annual threat report, anchors trader consensus at 93.5% for "No" by September 30. Recent cross-strait diplomacy, including Xi Jinping's April 10 meeting with Taiwan's opposition KMT leader emphasizing peace amid global conflicts, and China's April 17 description of PLA activities near the Taiwan Strait as "reasonable," signal de-escalation over escalation. Routine gray-zone incursions persist without invasion indicators, though sudden shifts in PLA mobilization or U.S. policy could alter odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$288,023 交易量
$288,023 交易量
2026-09-30
是
$288,023 交易量
$288,023 交易量
2026-09-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. intelligence assessments released March 18, 2026, concluded China is not planning an invasion of Taiwan in 2027 and prefers unification without force, citing prohibitive economic and military costs amid ongoing deterrence by U.S. and allies. This view, echoed in the ODNI's annual threat report, anchors trader consensus at 93.5% for "No" by September 30. Recent cross-strait diplomacy, including Xi Jinping's April 10 meeting with Taiwan's opposition KMT leader emphasizing peace amid global conflicts, and China's April 17 description of PLA activities near the Taiwan Strait as "reasonable," signal de-escalation over escalation. Routine gray-zone incursions persist without invasion indicators, though sudden shifts in PLA mobilization or U.S. policy could alter odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
交易量
$288,023结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. intelligence assessments released March 18, 2026, concluded China is not planning an invasion of Taiwan in 2027 and prefers unification without force, citing prohibitive economic and military costs amid ongoing deterrence by U.S. and allies. This view, echoed in the ODNI's annual threat report, anchors trader consensus at 93.5% for "No" by September 30. Recent cross-strait diplomacy, including Xi Jinping's April 10 meeting with Taiwan's opposition KMT leader emphasizing peace amid global conflicts, and China's April 17 description of PLA activities near the Taiwan Strait as "reasonable," signal de-escalation over escalation. Routine gray-zone incursions persist without invasion indicators, though sudden shifts in PLA mobilization or U.S. policy could alter odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$288,023结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. intelligence assessments released March 18, 2026, concluded China is not planning an invasion of Taiwan in 2027 and prefers unification without force, citing prohibitive economic and military costs amid ongoing deterrence by U.S. and allies. This view, echoed in the ODNI's annual threat report, anchors trader consensus at 93.5% for "No" by September 30. Recent cross-strait diplomacy, including Xi Jinping's April 10 meeting with Taiwan's opposition KMT leader emphasizing peace amid global conflicts, and China's April 17 description of PLA activities near the Taiwan Strait as "reasonable," signal de-escalation over escalation. Routine gray-zone incursions persist without invasion indicators, though sudden shifts in PLA mobilization or U.S. policy could alter odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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