Recent US-China diplomatic engagements, including multiple leader summits and agreements on strategic stability, have reinforced military-to-military communication channels aimed at reducing miscalculation risks in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. The US 2026 National Defense Strategy prioritizes deterrence while emphasizing dialogue to maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific, amid ongoing economic cooperation such as agricultural trade commitments. Persistent low-level maritime tensions and PLA activities have not escalated to direct bilateral clashes, supporting trader consensus on the low likelihood of open conflict before 2027. Potential shifts could arise from sudden Taiwan contingencies or unintended incidents, though current patterns favor managed competition over confrontation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$124,149 交易量
$124,149 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$124,149 交易量
$124,149 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-China diplomatic engagements, including multiple leader summits and agreements on strategic stability, have reinforced military-to-military communication channels aimed at reducing miscalculation risks in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. The US 2026 National Defense Strategy prioritizes deterrence while emphasizing dialogue to maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific, amid ongoing economic cooperation such as agricultural trade commitments. Persistent low-level maritime tensions and PLA activities have not escalated to direct bilateral clashes, supporting trader consensus on the low likelihood of open conflict before 2027. Potential shifts could arise from sudden Taiwan contingencies or unintended incidents, though current patterns favor managed competition over confrontation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
交易量
$124,149结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-China diplomatic engagements, including multiple leader summits and agreements on strategic stability, have reinforced military-to-military communication channels aimed at reducing miscalculation risks in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. The US 2026 National Defense Strategy prioritizes deterrence while emphasizing dialogue to maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific, amid ongoing economic cooperation such as agricultural trade commitments. Persistent low-level maritime tensions and PLA activities have not escalated to direct bilateral clashes, supporting trader consensus on the low likelihood of open conflict before 2027. Potential shifts could arise from sudden Taiwan contingencies or unintended incidents, though current patterns favor managed competition over confrontation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$124,149结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-China diplomatic engagements, including multiple leader summits and agreements on strategic stability, have reinforced military-to-military communication channels aimed at reducing miscalculation risks in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. The US 2026 National Defense Strategy prioritizes deterrence while emphasizing dialogue to maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific, amid ongoing economic cooperation such as agricultural trade commitments. Persistent low-level maritime tensions and PLA activities have not escalated to direct bilateral clashes, supporting trader consensus on the low likelihood of open conflict before 2027. Potential shifts could arise from sudden Taiwan contingencies or unintended incidents, though current patterns favor managed competition over confrontation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题