US intelligence assessments released this week conclude that Chinese leaders do not plan an invasion of Taiwan in 2027 and lack a fixed timeline, preferring coercion through gray-zone tactics like PLA aircraft incursions into Taiwan's ADIZ and naval patrols rather than a high-risk amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait. Trader consensus at 96.5% "No" reflects the absence of observable mobilization indicators amid Beijing's recognition of prohibitive economic costs, potential US-led intervention, and logistical challenges, reinforced by recent reports of steady but uneven PLA modernization without near-term invasion readiness. Scenarios that could shift odds include sudden escalatory military exercises, a blockade test, or exploitation of US distractions in the Middle East, though no such developments have emerged in the past month.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$1,822,535 交易量
$1,822,535 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
是
$1,822,535 交易量
$1,822,535 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments released this week conclude that Chinese leaders do not plan an invasion of Taiwan in 2027 and lack a fixed timeline, preferring coercion through gray-zone tactics like PLA aircraft incursions into Taiwan's ADIZ and naval patrols rather than a high-risk amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait. Trader consensus at 96.5% "No" reflects the absence of observable mobilization indicators amid Beijing's recognition of prohibitive economic costs, potential US-led intervention, and logistical challenges, reinforced by recent reports of steady but uneven PLA modernization without near-term invasion readiness. Scenarios that could shift odds include sudden escalatory military exercises, a blockade test, or exploitation of US distractions in the Middle East, though no such developments have emerged in the past month.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
交易量
$1,822,535结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments released this week conclude that Chinese leaders do not plan an invasion of Taiwan in 2027 and lack a fixed timeline, preferring coercion through gray-zone tactics like PLA aircraft incursions into Taiwan's ADIZ and naval patrols rather than a high-risk amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait. Trader consensus at 96.5% "No" reflects the absence of observable mobilization indicators amid Beijing's recognition of prohibitive economic costs, potential US-led intervention, and logistical challenges, reinforced by recent reports of steady but uneven PLA modernization without near-term invasion readiness. Scenarios that could shift odds include sudden escalatory military exercises, a blockade test, or exploitation of US distractions in the Middle East, though no such developments have emerged in the past month.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$1,822,535结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments released this week conclude that Chinese leaders do not plan an invasion of Taiwan in 2027 and lack a fixed timeline, preferring coercion through gray-zone tactics like PLA aircraft incursions into Taiwan's ADIZ and naval patrols rather than a high-risk amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait. Trader consensus at 96.5% "No" reflects the absence of observable mobilization indicators amid Beijing's recognition of prohibitive economic costs, potential US-led intervention, and logistical challenges, reinforced by recent reports of steady but uneven PLA modernization without near-term invasion readiness. Scenarios that could shift odds include sudden escalatory military exercises, a blockade test, or exploitation of US distractions in the Middle East, though no such developments have emerged in the past month.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题