Recent near-collisions and aggressive maneuvers by Chinese warships and coast guard vessels against Philippine navy ships and fishing boats near Thitu Island, Sabina Shoal, and Scarborough Shoal in late March 2026—such as radar locks and evasion actions—have heightened South China Sea tensions but stopped short of armed conflict. Manila, as 2026 ASEAN chair, resumed bilateral talks with Beijing, raising concerns over unsafe actions while rejecting China's sovereignty claims, signaling diplomatic channels remain open amid code of conduct negotiations. Expanded Philippine defense pacts with France and reaffirmed U.S. treaty commitments deter escalation, aligning with trader consensus at 76.5% for no military clash before 2027 despite grey-zone coercion patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$197,801 交易量
$197,801 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$197,801 交易量
$197,801 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent near-collisions and aggressive maneuvers by Chinese warships and coast guard vessels against Philippine navy ships and fishing boats near Thitu Island, Sabina Shoal, and Scarborough Shoal in late March 2026—such as radar locks and evasion actions—have heightened South China Sea tensions but stopped short of armed conflict. Manila, as 2026 ASEAN chair, resumed bilateral talks with Beijing, raising concerns over unsafe actions while rejecting China's sovereignty claims, signaling diplomatic channels remain open amid code of conduct negotiations. Expanded Philippine defense pacts with France and reaffirmed U.S. treaty commitments deter escalation, aligning with trader consensus at 76.5% for no military clash before 2027 despite grey-zone coercion patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
交易量
$197,801结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent near-collisions and aggressive maneuvers by Chinese warships and coast guard vessels against Philippine navy ships and fishing boats near Thitu Island, Sabina Shoal, and Scarborough Shoal in late March 2026—such as radar locks and evasion actions—have heightened South China Sea tensions but stopped short of armed conflict. Manila, as 2026 ASEAN chair, resumed bilateral talks with Beijing, raising concerns over unsafe actions while rejecting China's sovereignty claims, signaling diplomatic channels remain open amid code of conduct negotiations. Expanded Philippine defense pacts with France and reaffirmed U.S. treaty commitments deter escalation, aligning with trader consensus at 76.5% for no military clash before 2027 despite grey-zone coercion patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$197,801结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent near-collisions and aggressive maneuvers by Chinese warships and coast guard vessels against Philippine navy ships and fishing boats near Thitu Island, Sabina Shoal, and Scarborough Shoal in late March 2026—such as radar locks and evasion actions—have heightened South China Sea tensions but stopped short of armed conflict. Manila, as 2026 ASEAN chair, resumed bilateral talks with Beijing, raising concerns over unsafe actions while rejecting China's sovereignty claims, signaling diplomatic channels remain open amid code of conduct negotiations. Expanded Philippine defense pacts with France and reaffirmed U.S. treaty commitments deter escalation, aligning with trader consensus at 76.5% for no military clash before 2027 despite grey-zone coercion patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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