Trader consensus prices an 86% chance of no military clash between China and Japan before 2027, reflecting persistent gray-zone coercion around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands—such as China's coast guard expelling a Japanese fishing vessel on March 17 and record patrols—but no escalation to armed confrontation. A Japanese military officer's break-in at China's Tokyo embassy earlier this week prompted strong protests from Beijing and regret from Tokyo, yet elicited diplomatic demarches rather than military retaliation. Recent U.S. ODNI assessments indicate China lacks readiness for major conflict, citing PLA purges and no planned 2027 Taiwan invasion that could draw in Japan via U.S. basing. Japan's planned missile deployments near Taiwan have heightened rhetoric, but economic interdependence and alliance deterrence sustain de-escalation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$508,919 交易量
$508,919 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
是
$508,919 交易量
$508,919 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices an 86% chance of no military clash between China and Japan before 2027, reflecting persistent gray-zone coercion around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands—such as China's coast guard expelling a Japanese fishing vessel on March 17 and record patrols—but no escalation to armed confrontation. A Japanese military officer's break-in at China's Tokyo embassy earlier this week prompted strong protests from Beijing and regret from Tokyo, yet elicited diplomatic demarches rather than military retaliation. Recent U.S. ODNI assessments indicate China lacks readiness for major conflict, citing PLA purges and no planned 2027 Taiwan invasion that could draw in Japan via U.S. basing. Japan's planned missile deployments near Taiwan have heightened rhetoric, but economic interdependence and alliance deterrence sustain de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ET
交易量
$508,919结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices an 86% chance of no military clash between China and Japan before 2027, reflecting persistent gray-zone coercion around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands—such as China's coast guard expelling a Japanese fishing vessel on March 17 and record patrols—but no escalation to armed confrontation. A Japanese military officer's break-in at China's Tokyo embassy earlier this week prompted strong protests from Beijing and regret from Tokyo, yet elicited diplomatic demarches rather than military retaliation. Recent U.S. ODNI assessments indicate China lacks readiness for major conflict, citing PLA purges and no planned 2027 Taiwan invasion that could draw in Japan via U.S. basing. Japan's planned missile deployments near Taiwan have heightened rhetoric, but economic interdependence and alliance deterrence sustain de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$508,919结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 86% chance of no military clash between China and Japan before 2027, reflecting persistent gray-zone coercion around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands—such as China's coast guard expelling a Japanese fishing vessel on March 17 and record patrols—but no escalation to armed confrontation. A Japanese military officer's break-in at China's Tokyo embassy earlier this week prompted strong protests from Beijing and regret from Tokyo, yet elicited diplomatic demarches rather than military retaliation. Recent U.S. ODNI assessments indicate China lacks readiness for major conflict, citing PLA purges and no planned 2027 Taiwan invasion that could draw in Japan via U.S. basing. Japan's planned missile deployments near Taiwan have heightened rhetoric, but economic interdependence and alliance deterrence sustain de-escalation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题