US intelligence's March 2026 annual threat assessment concluded China does not currently plan a military invasion of Taiwan by 2027, favoring unification via gray-zone tactics, economic coercion, and political influence over outright conflict in the Taiwan Strait—this key revelation has anchored trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability for "No." Supporting this, People's Liberation Army Air Force incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone plummeted since January, with a 10-day halt in early March before limited resumption on March 15. Taiwan debates bolstering defense spending amid reduced escalation signals, though US distractions in the Middle East raise vigilance for opportunistic moves; no major catalysts point to pre-2027 clash.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$1,431,523 交易量
$1,431,523 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
是
$1,431,523 交易量
$1,431,523 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence's March 2026 annual threat assessment concluded China does not currently plan a military invasion of Taiwan by 2027, favoring unification via gray-zone tactics, economic coercion, and political influence over outright conflict in the Taiwan Strait—this key revelation has anchored trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability for "No." Supporting this, People's Liberation Army Air Force incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone plummeted since January, with a 10-day halt in early March before limited resumption on March 15. Taiwan debates bolstering defense spending amid reduced escalation signals, though US distractions in the Middle East raise vigilance for opportunistic moves; no major catalysts point to pre-2027 clash.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
交易量
$1,431,523结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence's March 2026 annual threat assessment concluded China does not currently plan a military invasion of Taiwan by 2027, favoring unification via gray-zone tactics, economic coercion, and political influence over outright conflict in the Taiwan Strait—this key revelation has anchored trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability for "No." Supporting this, People's Liberation Army Air Force incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone plummeted since January, with a 10-day halt in early March before limited resumption on March 15. Taiwan debates bolstering defense spending amid reduced escalation signals, though US distractions in the Middle East raise vigilance for opportunistic moves; no major catalysts point to pre-2027 clash.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,431,523结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence's March 2026 annual threat assessment concluded China does not currently plan a military invasion of Taiwan by 2027, favoring unification via gray-zone tactics, economic coercion, and political influence over outright conflict in the Taiwan Strait—this key revelation has anchored trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability for "No." Supporting this, People's Liberation Army Air Force incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone plummeted since January, with a 10-day halt in early March before limited resumption on March 15. Taiwan debates bolstering defense spending amid reduced escalation signals, though US distractions in the Middle East raise vigilance for opportunistic moves; no major catalysts point to pre-2027 clash.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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