US intelligence community's March 2026 annual threat assessment concludes Chinese leaders do not currently plan a Taiwan invasion before 2027 or hold a fixed unification timeline, citing Beijing's view of prohibitive economic and strategic costs amid ongoing PLA modernization. This shift from prior warnings of a narrowing window has anchored trader consensus at 85.5% for "No," reflecting deterrence from US commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act, alliances like AUKUS, and Taiwan's defenses. Recent cross-strait developments show persistent gray-zone coercion via aircraft incursions and drills but no escalation signals, with China prioritizing political infiltration over military action. Unforeseen diplomatic breakdowns or regional crises could alter odds, though stability prevails.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$1,431,492 交易量
$1,431,492 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
是
$1,431,492 交易量
$1,431,492 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence community's March 2026 annual threat assessment concludes Chinese leaders do not currently plan a Taiwan invasion before 2027 or hold a fixed unification timeline, citing Beijing's view of prohibitive economic and strategic costs amid ongoing PLA modernization. This shift from prior warnings of a narrowing window has anchored trader consensus at 85.5% for "No," reflecting deterrence from US commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act, alliances like AUKUS, and Taiwan's defenses. Recent cross-strait developments show persistent gray-zone coercion via aircraft incursions and drills but no escalation signals, with China prioritizing political infiltration over military action. Unforeseen diplomatic breakdowns or regional crises could alter odds, though stability prevails.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
交易量
$1,431,492结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence community's March 2026 annual threat assessment concludes Chinese leaders do not currently plan a Taiwan invasion before 2027 or hold a fixed unification timeline, citing Beijing's view of prohibitive economic and strategic costs amid ongoing PLA modernization. This shift from prior warnings of a narrowing window has anchored trader consensus at 85.5% for "No," reflecting deterrence from US commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act, alliances like AUKUS, and Taiwan's defenses. Recent cross-strait developments show persistent gray-zone coercion via aircraft incursions and drills but no escalation signals, with China prioritizing political infiltration over military action. Unforeseen diplomatic breakdowns or regional crises could alter odds, though stability prevails.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,431,492结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence community's March 2026 annual threat assessment concludes Chinese leaders do not currently plan a Taiwan invasion before 2027 or hold a fixed unification timeline, citing Beijing's view of prohibitive economic and strategic costs amid ongoing PLA modernization. This shift from prior warnings of a narrowing window has anchored trader consensus at 85.5% for "No," reflecting deterrence from US commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act, alliances like AUKUS, and Taiwan's defenses. Recent cross-strait developments show persistent gray-zone coercion via aircraft incursions and drills but no escalation signals, with China prioritizing political infiltration over military action. Unforeseen diplomatic breakdowns or regional crises could alter odds, though stability prevails.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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