Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 99.5% implied probability against a People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut to its 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, driven by the central bank's March 20 decision to hold benchmark loan prime rates (LPRs) steady at 3.00% for one-year and 3.50% for five-year terms—the 10th consecutive month unchanged—amid cooling bets on further easing. Recent liquidity operations have withdrawn funds rather than inject aggressively, with rate markets signaling reduced deflation risks and global factors like Mideast tensions clouding the inflation outlook. With resolution imminent at midnight China Standard Time tomorrow and no precursory signals from PBOC communications, the skin-in-the-game crowd sees negligible upside for a surprise move; tail risks include abrupt economic data deterioration or geopolitical shocks prompting an emergency adjustment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$115,628 交易量
$115,628 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
是
$115,628 交易量
$115,628 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cuts the 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “cut” refers to any lowering of the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
An official announcement of a cut to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of when the rate cut is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 99.5% implied probability against a People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut to its 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, driven by the central bank's March 20 decision to hold benchmark loan prime rates (LPRs) steady at 3.00% for one-year and 3.50% for five-year terms—the 10th consecutive month unchanged—amid cooling bets on further easing. Recent liquidity operations have withdrawn funds rather than inject aggressively, with rate markets signaling reduced deflation risks and global factors like Mideast tensions clouding the inflation outlook. With resolution imminent at midnight China Standard Time tomorrow and no precursory signals from PBOC communications, the skin-in-the-game crowd sees negligible upside for a surprise move; tail risks include abrupt economic data deterioration or geopolitical shocks prompting an emergency adjustment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cuts the 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “cut” refers to any lowering of the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
An official announcement of a cut to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of when the rate cut is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
A “cut” refers to any lowering of the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
An official announcement of a cut to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of when the rate cut is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
市场开放时间： Feb 20, 2026, 4:38 PM ET
交易量
$115,628结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 20, 2026, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cuts the 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “cut” refers to any lowering of the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
An official announcement of a cut to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of when the rate cut is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 99.5% implied probability against a People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut to its 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, driven by the central bank's March 20 decision to hold benchmark loan prime rates (LPRs) steady at 3.00% for one-year and 3.50% for five-year terms—the 10th consecutive month unchanged—amid cooling bets on further easing. Recent liquidity operations have withdrawn funds rather than inject aggressively, with rate markets signaling reduced deflation risks and global factors like Mideast tensions clouding the inflation outlook. With resolution imminent at midnight China Standard Time tomorrow and no precursory signals from PBOC communications, the skin-in-the-game crowd sees negligible upside for a surprise move; tail risks include abrupt economic data deterioration or geopolitical shocks prompting an emergency adjustment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cuts the 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “cut” refers to any lowering of the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
An official announcement of a cut to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of when the rate cut is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
A “cut” refers to any lowering of the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
An official announcement of a cut to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of when the rate cut is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
交易量
$115,628结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 20, 2026, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 99.5% implied probability against a People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut to its 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, driven by the central bank's March 20 decision to hold benchmark loan prime rates (LPRs) steady at 3.00% for one-year and 3.50% for five-year terms—the 10th consecutive month unchanged—amid cooling bets on further easing. Recent liquidity operations have withdrawn funds rather than inject aggressively, with rate markets signaling reduced deflation risks and global factors like Mideast tensions clouding the inflation outlook. With resolution imminent at midnight China Standard Time tomorrow and no precursory signals from PBOC communications, the skin-in-the-game crowd sees negligible upside for a surprise move; tail risks include abrupt economic data deterioration or geopolitical shocks prompting an emergency adjustment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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