Polymarket traders price a 99.7% implied probability against a People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut to its 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, 2026, reflecting near-unanimous consensus after the central bank's March 20 decision to hold Loan Prime Rates (LPR) unchanged for a tenth straight month—one-year at 3.0% and five-year at 3.5%—in line with expectations and signaling no near-term monetary easing despite earlier 2026 pledges for reserve requirement ratio reductions and selective rate adjustments. Cooling bets in China's rate markets, driven by stabilizing inflation trajectories and ample liquidity from prior stimulus, have solidified this positioning, with no fresh policy announcements since mid-March. Tail risks include an unforeseen economic shock, such as sharply deteriorating activity data or external pressures, prompting an emergency cut before tomorrow's deadline, though such scenarios remain highly improbable absent major catalysts. Next LPR fix eyed for April 20.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$116,532 交易量
$116,532 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
是
$116,532 交易量
$116,532 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cuts the 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “cut” refers to any lowering of the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
An official announcement of a cut to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of when the rate cut is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.Polymarket traders price a 99.7% implied probability against a People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut to its 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, 2026, reflecting near-unanimous consensus after the central bank's March 20 decision to hold Loan Prime Rates (LPR) unchanged for a tenth straight month—one-year at 3.0% and five-year at 3.5%—in line with expectations and signaling no near-term monetary easing despite earlier 2026 pledges for reserve requirement ratio reductions and selective rate adjustments. Cooling bets in China's rate markets, driven by stabilizing inflation trajectories and ample liquidity from prior stimulus, have solidified this positioning, with no fresh policy announcements since mid-March. Tail risks include an unforeseen economic shock, such as sharply deteriorating activity data or external pressures, prompting an emergency cut before tomorrow's deadline, though such scenarios remain highly improbable absent major catalysts. Next LPR fix eyed for April 20.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cuts the 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “cut” refers to any lowering of the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
An official announcement of a cut to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of when the rate cut is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
A “cut” refers to any lowering of the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
An official announcement of a cut to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of when the rate cut is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
市场开放时间： Feb 20, 2026, 4:38 PM ET
交易量
$116,532结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 20, 2026, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cuts the 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “cut” refers to any lowering of the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
An official announcement of a cut to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of when the rate cut is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.Polymarket traders price a 99.7% implied probability against a People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut to its 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, 2026, reflecting near-unanimous consensus after the central bank's March 20 decision to hold Loan Prime Rates (LPR) unchanged for a tenth straight month—one-year at 3.0% and five-year at 3.5%—in line with expectations and signaling no near-term monetary easing despite earlier 2026 pledges for reserve requirement ratio reductions and selective rate adjustments. Cooling bets in China's rate markets, driven by stabilizing inflation trajectories and ample liquidity from prior stimulus, have solidified this positioning, with no fresh policy announcements since mid-March. Tail risks include an unforeseen economic shock, such as sharply deteriorating activity data or external pressures, prompting an emergency cut before tomorrow's deadline, though such scenarios remain highly improbable absent major catalysts. Next LPR fix eyed for April 20.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cuts the 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “cut” refers to any lowering of the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
An official announcement of a cut to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of when the rate cut is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
A “cut” refers to any lowering of the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
An official announcement of a cut to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of when the rate cut is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
交易量
$116,532结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 20, 2026, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 99.7% implied probability against a People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut to its 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, 2026, reflecting near-unanimous consensus after the central bank's March 20 decision to hold Loan Prime Rates (LPR) unchanged for a tenth straight month—one-year at 3.0% and five-year at 3.5%—in line with expectations and signaling no near-term monetary easing despite earlier 2026 pledges for reserve requirement ratio reductions and selective rate adjustments. Cooling bets in China's rate markets, driven by stabilizing inflation trajectories and ample liquidity from prior stimulus, have solidified this positioning, with no fresh policy announcements since mid-March. Tail risks include an unforeseen economic shock, such as sharply deteriorating activity data or external pressures, prompting an emergency cut before tomorrow's deadline, though such scenarios remain highly improbable absent major catalysts. Next LPR fix eyed for April 20.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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