Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 71%, aligning with major forecasts like IMF's 4.3% and Goldman Sachs' 4.0% projections, driven by Q3 2024 growth of 4.6% year-over-year that missed expectations amid persistent property sector weakness and deflationary pressures. Recent fiscal stimulus—including a 10 trillion yuan local debt swap and PBOC rate cuts—has provided modest support, but structural challenges like aging demographics and subdued consumer spending cap upside, positioning 5.0–6.0% at 26.4%. Post-US election tariff threats from President-elect Trump introduce downside risks, potentially curbing exports, while the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference could signal further policy measures influencing trader sentiment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于4.0–5.0% 72%
5.0–6.0% 25.8%
6.0-7.0% 2.6%
7.0–8.0% 1.6%
$194,060 交易量
$194,060 交易量
Jan 31, 2026
低于1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
1%
2.0–3.0%
1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
72%
5.0–6.0%
26%
6.0-7.0%
3%
7.0–8.0%
2%
8.0–9.0%
1%
9.0%及以上
<1%
4.0–5.0% 72%
5.0–6.0% 25.8%
6.0-7.0% 2.6%
7.0–8.0% 1.6%
$194,060 交易量
$194,060 交易量
Jan 31, 2026
低于1.0%
$16,520 交易量
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$26,048 交易量
1%
2.0–3.0%
$5,228 交易量
1%
3.0–4.0%
$5,960 交易量
1%
4.0–5.0%
$10,457 交易量
72%
5.0–6.0%
$10,860 交易量
26%
6.0-7.0%
$17,800 交易量
3%
7.0–8.0%
$27,993 交易量
2%
8.0–9.0%
$5,525 交易量
1%
9.0%及以上
$67,669 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 71%, aligning with major forecasts like IMF's 4.3% and Goldman Sachs' 4.0% projections, driven by Q3 2024 growth of 4.6% year-over-year that missed expectations amid persistent property sector weakness and deflationary pressures. Recent fiscal stimulus—including a 10 trillion yuan local debt swap and PBOC rate cuts—has provided modest support, but structural challenges like aging demographics and subdued consumer spending cap upside, positioning 5.0–6.0% at 26.4%. Post-US election tariff threats from President-elect Trump introduce downside risks, potentially curbing exports, while the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference could signal further policy measures influencing trader sentiment.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
交易量
$194,060结束日期
Jan 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 71%, aligning with major forecasts like IMF's 4.3% and Goldman Sachs' 4.0% projections, driven by Q3 2024 growth of 4.6% year-over-year that missed expectations amid persistent property sector weakness and deflationary pressures. Recent fiscal stimulus—including a 10 trillion yuan local debt swap and PBOC rate cuts—has provided modest support, but structural challenges like aging demographics and subdued consumer spending cap upside, positioning 5.0–6.0% at 26.4%. Post-US election tariff threats from President-elect Trump introduce downside risks, potentially curbing exports, while the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference could signal further policy measures influencing trader sentiment.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$194,060结束日期
Jan 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 71%, aligning with major forecasts like IMF's 4.3% and Goldman Sachs' 4.0% projections, driven by Q3 2024 growth of 4.6% year-over-year that missed expectations amid persistent property sector weakness and deflationary pressures. Recent fiscal stimulus—including a 10 trillion yuan local debt swap and PBOC rate cuts—has provided modest support, but structural challenges like aging demographics and subdued consumer spending cap upside, positioning 5.0–6.0% at 26.4%. Post-US election tariff threats from President-elect Trump introduce downside risks, potentially curbing exports, while the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference could signal further policy measures influencing trader sentiment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题