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经济·韩国

2026年第一季度韩国GDP增长情况如何？

Market icon
经济·韩国

2026年第一季度韩国GDP增长情况如何？

Apr 23

Apr 23

2.0–2.4% 31%

2.5%及以上 15%

1.0–1.4% 11.0%

低于0% 4.3%

Polymarket
NEW

2.0–2.4% 31%

2.5%及以上 15%

1.0–1.4% 11.0%

低于0% 4.3%

Polymarket
NEW

低于0%

$0 交易量

15%

0.0–0.4%

$0 交易量

3%

0.5–0.9%

$0 交易量

35%

1.0–1.4%

$0 交易量

11%

1.5–1.9%

$267 交易量

37%

2.0–2.4%

$0 交易量

25%

2.5%及以上

$6,175 交易量

14%

This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10 The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—37% for 1.5–1.9% quarter-on-quarter annualized GDP growth and 35% for 0.5–0.9%—reflect competing forces in South Korea's Q1 2026 economy, with surging semiconductor exports offsetting persistent construction weakness following Q4 2025's -0.2% contraction. February exports hit a record $67.5 billion, up 29% year-over-year on AI-driven chip demand (up over 40%), alongside 55% early March gains and expanding factory activity, bolstering the higher bracket. However, subdued private consumption and industrial drags beyond semis keep lower outcomes viable, per Bank of Korea's steady 2.5% policy rate and full-year 1.8–2.0% forecasts. Q1 advance data due late April could resolve sentiment.

Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—37% for 1.5–1.9% quarter-on-quarter annualized GDP growth and 35% for 0.5–0.9%—reflect competing forces in South Korea's Q1 2026 economy, with surging semiconductor exports offsetting persistent construction weakness following Q4 2025's -0.2% contraction. February exports hit a record $67.5 billion, up 29% year-over-year on AI-driven chip demand (up over 40%), alongside 55% early March gains and expanding factory activity, bolstering the higher bracket. However, subdued private consumption and industrial drags beyond semis keep lower outcomes viable, per Bank of Korea's steady 2.5% policy rate and full-year 1.8–2.0% forecasts. Q1 advance data due late April could resolve sentiment.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10 The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—37% for 1.5–1.9% quarter-on-quarter annualized GDP growth and 35% for 0.5–0.9%—reflect competing forces in South Korea's Q1 2026 economy, with surging semiconductor exports offsetting persistent construction weakness following Q4 2025's -0.2% contraction. February exports hit a record $67.5 billion, up 29% year-over-year on AI-driven chip demand (up over 40%), alongside 55% early March gains and expanding factory activity, bolstering the higher bracket. However, subdued private consumption and industrial drags beyond semis keep lower outcomes viable, per Bank of Korea's steady 2.5% policy rate and full-year 1.8–2.0% forecasts. Q1 advance data due late April could resolve sentiment.

Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—37% for 1.5–1.9% quarter-on-quarter annualized GDP growth and 35% for 0.5–0.9%—reflect competing forces in South Korea's Q1 2026 economy, with surging semiconductor exports offsetting persistent construction weakness following Q4 2025's -0.2% contraction. February exports hit a record $67.5 billion, up 29% year-over-year on AI-driven chip demand (up over 40%), alongside 55% early March gains and expanding factory activity, bolstering the higher bracket. However, subdued private consumption and industrial drags beyond semis keep lower outcomes viable, per Bank of Korea's steady 2.5% policy rate and full-year 1.8–2.0% forecasts. Q1 advance data due late April could resolve sentiment.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

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常见问题

"2026年第一季度韩国GDP增长情况如何？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 7 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"1.5–1.9%"，概率为 37%，其次是"0.5–0.9%"，概率为 35%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 37¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 37%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"2026年第一季度韩国GDP增长情况如何？"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Jan 29, 2026上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"2026年第一季度韩国GDP增长情况如何？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 7 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2026年第一季度韩国GDP增长情况如何？"的当前领先者是"1.5–1.9%"，概率为 37%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 37%。紧随其后的结果是"0.5–0.9%"，概率为 35%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2026年第一季度韩国GDP增长情况如何？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。