Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.7% implied probability that March 2026 US CPI annual inflation will hit ≥2.8%, reflecting a sharp energy-led surge following the late-February US-Israel-Iran war that drove national average gasoline prices above $4 per gallon—a 30% monthly jump. February's headline CPI held steady at 2.4% YoY amid subdued pressures, but Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to an 0.84% March m/m increase, pushing economist previews to around 3.2% YoY amid elevated oil volatility and supply disruptions. This positions the market well above the Fed's 2% target, with resolution hinging on BLS data April 10; realistic challenges include softer-than-expected shelter costs or energy revisions, though geopolitical risks favor persistence.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于≥2.8% 98.6%
2.7% <1%
不超过2.0% <1%
2.3% <1%
$3,161,464 交易量
$3,161,464 交易量
不超过2.0%
<1%
2.1%
<1%
2.2%
<1%
2.3%
<1%
2.4%
<1%
2.5%
<1%
2.6%
<1%
2.7%
1%
≥2.8%
99%
≥2.8% 98.6%
2.7% <1%
不超过2.0% <1%
2.3% <1%
$3,161,464 交易量
$3,161,464 交易量
不超过2.0%
<1%
2.1%
<1%
2.2%
<1%
2.3%
<1%
2.4%
<1%
2.5%
<1%
2.6%
<1%
2.7%
1%
≥2.8%
99%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
市场开放时间: Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.7% implied probability that March 2026 US CPI annual inflation will hit ≥2.8%, reflecting a sharp energy-led surge following the late-February US-Israel-Iran war that drove national average gasoline prices above $4 per gallon—a 30% monthly jump. February's headline CPI held steady at 2.4% YoY amid subdued pressures, but Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to an 0.84% March m/m increase, pushing economist previews to around 3.2% YoY amid elevated oil volatility and supply disruptions. This positions the market well above the Fed's 2% target, with resolution hinging on BLS data April 10; realistic challenges include softer-than-expected shelter costs or energy revisions, though geopolitical risks favor persistence.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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