Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99% implied probability for March 2026 annual CPI at or above 2.8%, reflecting sticky inflation dynamics reinforced by February's 2.4% year-over-year reading—unchanged from January but driven by 0.63% energy gains amid Iran tensions and persistent shelter costs up 0.2% monthly. The FOMC's March 18 projections upwardly revised 2026 PCE inflation to 2.7%, aligning with Cleveland Fed nowcasts implying elevated March month-over-month headline CPI near 0.84% and economist medians around 3.2–3.4% YoY. This strong positioning could face challenges from pre-release energy price relief, softer services data, or base effects exceeding nowcast assumptions ahead of the April 10 BLS report.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于≥2.8% 99.0%
不超过2.0% <1%
2.7% <1%
2.4% <1%
$3,087,457 交易量
$3,087,457 交易量
不超过2.0%
<1%
2.1%
<1%
2.2%
<1%
2.3%
<1%
2.4%
<1%
2.5%
<1%
2.6%
<1%
2.7%
<1%
≥2.8%
99%
≥2.8% 99.0%
不超过2.0% <1%
2.7% <1%
2.4% <1%
$3,087,457 交易量
$3,087,457 交易量
不超过2.0%
<1%
2.1%
<1%
2.2%
<1%
2.3%
<1%
2.4%
<1%
2.5%
<1%
2.6%
<1%
2.7%
<1%
≥2.8%
99%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
市场开放时间: Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99% implied probability for March 2026 annual CPI at or above 2.8%, reflecting sticky inflation dynamics reinforced by February's 2.4% year-over-year reading—unchanged from January but driven by 0.63% energy gains amid Iran tensions and persistent shelter costs up 0.2% monthly. The FOMC's March 18 projections upwardly revised 2026 PCE inflation to 2.7%, aligning with Cleveland Fed nowcasts implying elevated March month-over-month headline CPI near 0.84% and economist medians around 3.2–3.4% YoY. This strong positioning could face challenges from pre-release energy price relief, softer services data, or base effects exceeding nowcast assumptions ahead of the April 10 BLS report.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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