Polymarket traders assign a 32.5% implied probability to Brazil Q1 2026 GDP growth below 0.7%, leading a tightly contested field where bins from 0.7%-2.6% hover at 23-25%, signaling uncertainty over the trajectory of economic cooling. Recent Q2 2024 GDP contraction of 0.3% quarter-over-quarter—coupled with September retail sales down 0.7% and sticky IPCA inflation at 4.42% year-over-year—has reinforced expectations of prolonged tight monetary policy, with the Banco Central do Brasil holding the Selic rate at 10.75%. Consensus from the BCB Focus survey forecasts 2025 GDP at 2.18% and 2026 at 2.30% annually, but traders differentiate outcomes based on fiscal restraint amid spending bills versus resilience from agriculture exports. Key catalysts include November 29 Q3 GDP data and the December BCB meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于<0.7% 33%
0.7%–1.0% 25%
1.1%–1.4% 25%
1.5%–1.8% 25%
$14,201 交易量
$14,201 交易量
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
33%
0.7%–1.0%
25%
1.1%–1.4%
25%
1.5%–1.8%
25%
1.9%–2.2%
24%
2.3%–2.6%
25%
≥2.7%
19%
<0.7% 33%
0.7%–1.0% 25%
1.1%–1.4% 25%
1.5%–1.8% 25%
$14,201 交易量
$14,201 交易量
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
$13,105 交易量
33%
0.7%–1.0%
$0 交易量
25%
1.1%–1.4%
$0 交易量
25%
1.5%–1.8%
$0 交易量
25%
1.9%–2.2%
$0 交易量
24%
2.3%–2.6%
$0 交易量
25%
≥2.7%
$1,096 交易量
19%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlThis market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlThis market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlThis market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlThis market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlThis market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlThis market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlThis market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
市场开放时间： Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
交易量
$14,201结束日期
May 29, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlThis market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlThis market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlThis market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlThis market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlThis market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlThis market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
交易量
$14,201结束日期
May 29, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a 32.5% implied probability to Brazil Q1 2026 GDP growth below 0.7%, leading a tightly contested field where bins from 0.7%-2.6% hover at 23-25%, signaling uncertainty over the trajectory of economic cooling. Recent Q2 2024 GDP contraction of 0.3% quarter-over-quarter—coupled with September retail sales down 0.7% and sticky IPCA inflation at 4.42% year-over-year—has reinforced expectations of prolonged tight monetary policy, with the Banco Central do Brasil holding the Selic rate at 10.75%. Consensus from the BCB Focus survey forecasts 2025 GDP at 2.18% and 2026 at 2.30% annually, but traders differentiate outcomes based on fiscal restraint amid spending bills versus resilience from agriculture exports. Key catalysts include November 29 Q3 GDP data and the December BCB meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题