Elevated energy prices stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict have become the dominant driver of U.K. inflation expectations for 2026, shifting the Bank of England’s near-term CPI projections upward to 3.3% by Q3 and higher still in Q4. April 2026 CPI eased to 2.8% year-over-year, yet the direct and indirect pass-through from higher oil and gas costs is expected to keep readings above the 2% target through year-end. Market-implied odds, with 4.5%+ and 2.5–2.9% bins nearly tied, reflect uncertainty over the shock’s persistence, potential second-round wage and price effects, and the MPC’s restrictive stance at 3.75%. Key near-term catalysts include the June inflation release and subsequent FOMC-aligned BoE decisions that will clarify whether the energy impulse fades or embeds at higher levels.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2.5–2.9% 36.4%
3.5–3.9% 26%
4.5%及以上 21%
4.0-4.4% 11%
最新
最新
2027-01-20
低于1.0%
1%
1.0–1.4%
5%
1.5–1.9%
4%
2.0–2.4%
12%
2.5–2.9%
36%
3.5–3.9%
26%
4.0-4.4%
20%
4.5%及以上
39%
2.5–2.9% 36.4%
3.5–3.9% 26%
4.5%及以上 21%
4.0-4.4% 11%
最新
最新
2027-01-20
低于1.0%
$806 交易量
1%
1.0–1.4%
$330 交易量
5%
1.5–1.9%
$485 交易量
4%
2.0–2.4%
$305 交易量
12%
2.5–2.9%
$428 交易量
36%
3.5–3.9%
$525 交易量
26%
4.0-4.4%
$420 交易量
20%
4.5%及以上
$1,105 交易量
39%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarElevated energy prices stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict have become the dominant driver of U.K. inflation expectations for 2026, shifting the Bank of England’s near-term CPI projections upward to 3.3% by Q3 and higher still in Q4. April 2026 CPI eased to 2.8% year-over-year, yet the direct and indirect pass-through from higher oil and gas costs is expected to keep readings above the 2% target through year-end. Market-implied odds, with 4.5%+ and 2.5–2.9% bins nearly tied, reflect uncertainty over the shock’s persistence, potential second-round wage and price effects, and the MPC’s restrictive stance at 3.75%. Key near-term catalysts include the June inflation release and subsequent FOMC-aligned BoE decisions that will clarify whether the energy impulse fades or embeds at higher levels.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
市场开放时间： Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
交易量
$4,405结束日期
2027-01-20市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarElevated energy prices stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict have become the dominant driver of U.K. inflation expectations for 2026, shifting the Bank of England’s near-term CPI projections upward to 3.3% by Q3 and higher still in Q4. April 2026 CPI eased to 2.8% year-over-year, yet the direct and indirect pass-through from higher oil and gas costs is expected to keep readings above the 2% target through year-end. Market-implied odds, with 4.5%+ and 2.5–2.9% bins nearly tied, reflect uncertainty over the shock’s persistence, potential second-round wage and price effects, and the MPC’s restrictive stance at 3.75%. Key near-term catalysts include the June inflation release and subsequent FOMC-aligned BoE decisions that will clarify whether the energy impulse fades or embeds at higher levels.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
交易量
$4,405结束日期
2027-01-20市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated energy prices stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict have become the dominant driver of U.K. inflation expectations for 2026, shifting the Bank of England’s near-term CPI projections upward to 3.3% by Q3 and higher still in Q4. April 2026 CPI eased to 2.8% year-over-year, yet the direct and indirect pass-through from higher oil and gas costs is expected to keep readings above the 2% target through year-end. Market-implied odds, with 4.5%+ and 2.5–2.9% bins nearly tied, reflect uncertainty over the shock’s persistence, potential second-round wage and price effects, and the MPC’s restrictive stance at 3.75%. Key near-term catalysts include the June inflation release and subsequent FOMC-aligned BoE decisions that will clarify whether the energy impulse fades or embeds at higher levels.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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