Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability for Mexico's February unemployment rate at ≤2.4%, with another 28.5% on exactly 2.5%, signaling strong expectations of sustained labor market tightness amid 3.2% GDP growth in Q4 2023 per INEGI data. This positioning stems from January's 2.7% rate—down from December's 2.8%—bolstered by nearshoring-driven manufacturing gains and 678,000 formal jobs added last year, per IMSS reports. Recent developments include a resilient services PMI above 52 and cooling core inflation to 4.4% in February, reducing recession fears despite Banxico's steady 11% policy rate. Risks to higher outcomes like ≥3.0% (1.5%) hinge on INEGI's March 28 release, with traders eyeing sub-2.5% as validation for potential rate cuts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于≤2.4% 55%
2.5% 21%
2.6% 17.6%
2.8% 5.8%
$16,500 交易量
$16,500 交易量
Mar 27, 2026
≤2.4%
55%
2.5%
28%
2.6%
12%
2.7%
4%
2.8%
6%
2.9%
2%
≥3.0%
2%
≤2.4% 55%
2.5% 21%
2.6% 17.6%
2.8% 5.8%
$16,500 交易量
$16,500 交易量
Mar 27, 2026
≤2.4%
$11,132 交易量
55%
2.5%
$571 交易量
28%
2.6%
$769 交易量
12%
2.7%
$544 交易量
4%
2.8%
$352 交易量
6%
2.9%
$529 交易量
2%
≥3.0%
$2,603 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市场开放时间： Feb 26, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
交易量
$16,500结束日期
Mar 27, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$16,500结束日期
Mar 27, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability for Mexico's February unemployment rate at ≤2.4%, with another 28.5% on exactly 2.5%, signaling strong expectations of sustained labor market tightness amid 3.2% GDP growth in Q4 2023 per INEGI data. This positioning stems from January's 2.7% rate—down from December's 2.8%—bolstered by nearshoring-driven manufacturing gains and 678,000 formal jobs added last year, per IMSS reports. Recent developments include a resilient services PMI above 52 and cooling core inflation to 4.4% in February, reducing recession fears despite Banxico's steady 11% policy rate. Risks to higher outcomes like ≥3.0% (1.5%) hinge on INEGI's March 28 release, with traders eyeing sub-2.5% as validation for potential rate cuts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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