Traders on Polymarket price a razor-thin contest for Mexico's February unemployment rate, with ≤2.4% at 40% implied probability edging out 2.6% at 37.5%, and 2.5% at 26%, reflecting steady labor market dynamics after January's 2.5% print from INEGI—the lowest since mid-2023. This positioning stems from resilient manufacturing employment gains amid nearshoring investments and robust U.S. demand spillover, offsetting minor services sector softening, with no major shocks in recent IMSS job creation data. Consensus economist forecasts cluster around 2.5-2.6%, but bullish sentiment on industrial output tilts odds lower. Watch the official INEGI release expected March 22 for resolution, where deviations from seasonal trends could swing outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于≤2.4% 41%
2.6% 37.2%
2.5% 26%
2.7% <1%
$22,142 交易量
$22,142 交易量
Mar 27, 2026
≤2.4%
41%
2.5%
26%
2.6%
37%
2.7%
1%
2.8%
1%
2.9%
<1%
≥3.0%
<1%
≤2.4% 41%
2.6% 37.2%
2.5% 26%
2.7% <1%
$22,142 交易量
$22,142 交易量
Mar 27, 2026
≤2.4%
$12,485 交易量
41%
2.5%
$1,474 交易量
26%
2.6%
$2,053 交易量
37%
2.7%
$999 交易量
1%
2.8%
$723 交易量
1%
2.9%
$1,396 交易量
<1%
≥3.0%
$3,011 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市场开放时间： Feb 26, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
交易量
$22,142结束日期
Mar 27, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$22,142结束日期
Mar 27, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders on Polymarket price a razor-thin contest for Mexico's February unemployment rate, with ≤2.4% at 40% implied probability edging out 2.6% at 37.5%, and 2.5% at 26%, reflecting steady labor market dynamics after January's 2.5% print from INEGI—the lowest since mid-2023. This positioning stems from resilient manufacturing employment gains amid nearshoring investments and robust U.S. demand spillover, offsetting minor services sector softening, with no major shocks in recent IMSS job creation data. Consensus economist forecasts cluster around 2.5-2.6%, but bullish sentiment on industrial output tilts odds lower. Watch the official INEGI release expected March 22 for resolution, where deviations from seasonal trends could swing outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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