Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65.5% implied probability for China GDP growth of 4.5-5.0% year-over-year in Q1 2026, reflecting structural headwinds from the property sector crisis and demographic slowdown offsetting recent fiscal stimulus. Q1 2025 GDP expanded 5.4% y/y, beating estimates on strong exports and industrial production, but retail sales rose only 3.5% amid weak consumer confidence. Beijing's December 2024 monetary easing and 2025's expanded fiscal deficit target aim for 5% annual growth, yet analysts like Goldman Sachs project 4.6% for full-year 2026 amid U.S. tariff risks. Upcoming Q2 2025 data and Third Plenum reforms could sway sentiment, with lower ranges near 0% pricing tail risks from trade escalation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于4.5-5.0% 66%
5.0-5.5% 32%
5.5-6.0% 2.6%
4.0-4.5% <1%
$192,396 交易量
$192,396 交易量
Apr 17, 2026
低于3.5%
<1%
3.5-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.5%
1%
4.5-5.0%
66%
5.0-5.5%
32%
5.5-6.0%
3%
6.0%以上
<1%
4.5-5.0% 66%
5.0-5.5% 32%
5.5-6.0% 2.6%
4.0-4.5% <1%
$192,396 交易量
$192,396 交易量
Apr 17, 2026
低于3.5%
$11,927 交易量
<1%
3.5-4.0%
$48,940 交易量
<1%
4.0-4.5%
$31,926 交易量
1%
4.5-5.0%
$16,376 交易量
66%
5.0-5.5%
$18,127 交易量
32%
5.5-6.0%
$47,832 交易量
3%
6.0%以上
$17,269 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65.5% implied probability for China GDP growth of 4.5-5.0% year-over-year in Q1 2026, reflecting structural headwinds from the property sector crisis and demographic slowdown offsetting recent fiscal stimulus. Q1 2025 GDP expanded 5.4% y/y, beating estimates on strong exports and industrial production, but retail sales rose only 3.5% amid weak consumer confidence. Beijing's December 2024 monetary easing and 2025's expanded fiscal deficit target aim for 5% annual growth, yet analysts like Goldman Sachs project 4.6% for full-year 2026 amid U.S. tariff risks. Upcoming Q2 2025 data and Third Plenum reforms could sway sentiment, with lower ranges near 0% pricing tail risks from trade escalation.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
市场开放时间： Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ET
交易量
$192,396结束日期
Apr 17, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65.5% implied probability for China GDP growth of 4.5-5.0% year-over-year in Q1 2026, reflecting structural headwinds from the property sector crisis and demographic slowdown offsetting recent fiscal stimulus. Q1 2025 GDP expanded 5.4% y/y, beating estimates on strong exports and industrial production, but retail sales rose only 3.5% amid weak consumer confidence. Beijing's December 2024 monetary easing and 2025's expanded fiscal deficit target aim for 5% annual growth, yet analysts like Goldman Sachs project 4.6% for full-year 2026 amid U.S. tariff risks. Upcoming Q2 2025 data and Third Plenum reforms could sway sentiment, with lower ranges near 0% pricing tail risks from trade escalation.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
交易量
$192,396结束日期
Apr 17, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65.5% implied probability for China GDP growth of 4.5-5.0% year-over-year in Q1 2026, reflecting structural headwinds from the property sector crisis and demographic slowdown offsetting recent fiscal stimulus. Q1 2025 GDP expanded 5.4% y/y, beating estimates on strong exports and industrial production, but retail sales rose only 3.5% amid weak consumer confidence. Beijing's December 2024 monetary easing and 2025's expanded fiscal deficit target aim for 5% annual growth, yet analysts like Goldman Sachs project 4.6% for full-year 2026 amid U.S. tariff risks. Upcoming Q2 2025 data and Third Plenum reforms could sway sentiment, with lower ranges near 0% pricing tail risks from trade escalation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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