Polymarket traders price Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.5-1.0% bin at 48.5% implied probability, with 1.0-1.5% close behind at 37.5%, reflecting a weak economic start evidenced by January's Indicador Global de Actividad Económica (IGAE) contraction of 0.9% month-on-month seasonally adjusted and industrial production decline of 1.1%. Persistent manufacturing weakness—February PMI at 47.1 signaling contraction—offsets resilient retail sales up 5.0% year-on-year, tempering growth expectations amid U.S. demand slowdown risks. Banxico's recent 1.6% full-year 2026 forecast upgrade provides upside context, but Q1 resolution hinges on forthcoming February IGAE and early April flash GDP data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于0.5-1.0% 53%
1.0-1.5% 38%
1.5-2.0% 30%
低于0.0% 11%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
低于0.0%
11%
0.0-0.5%
13%
0.5-1.0%
49%
1.0-1.5%
38%
1.5-2.0%
30%
2.0-2.5%
10%
>2.5%
10%
0.5-1.0% 53%
1.0-1.5% 38%
1.5-2.0% 30%
低于0.0% 11%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
低于0.0%
$0 交易量
11%
0.0-0.5%
$0 交易量
13%
0.5-1.0%
$308 交易量
49%
1.0-1.5%
$0 交易量
38%
1.5-2.0%
$0 交易量
30%
2.0-2.5%
$0 交易量
10%
>2.5%
$0 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.5-1.0% bin at 48.5% implied probability, with 1.0-1.5% close behind at 37.5%, reflecting a weak economic start evidenced by January's Indicador Global de Actividad Económica (IGAE) contraction of 0.9% month-on-month seasonally adjusted and industrial production decline of 1.1%. Persistent manufacturing weakness—February PMI at 47.1 signaling contraction—offsets resilient retail sales up 5.0% year-on-year, tempering growth expectations amid U.S. demand slowdown risks. Banxico's recent 1.6% full-year 2026 forecast upgrade provides upside context, but Q1 resolution hinges on forthcoming February IGAE and early April flash GDP data.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
交易量
$308结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.5-1.0% bin at 48.5% implied probability, with 1.0-1.5% close behind at 37.5%, reflecting a weak economic start evidenced by January's Indicador Global de Actividad Económica (IGAE) contraction of 0.9% month-on-month seasonally adjusted and industrial production decline of 1.1%. Persistent manufacturing weakness—February PMI at 47.1 signaling contraction—offsets resilient retail sales up 5.0% year-on-year, tempering growth expectations amid U.S. demand slowdown risks. Banxico's recent 1.6% full-year 2026 forecast upgrade provides upside context, but Q1 resolution hinges on forthcoming February IGAE and early April flash GDP data.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$308结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.5-1.0% bin at 48.5% implied probability, with 1.0-1.5% close behind at 37.5%, reflecting a weak economic start evidenced by January's Indicador Global de Actividad Económica (IGAE) contraction of 0.9% month-on-month seasonally adjusted and industrial production decline of 1.1%. Persistent manufacturing weakness—February PMI at 47.1 signaling contraction—offsets resilient retail sales up 5.0% year-on-year, tempering growth expectations amid U.S. demand slowdown risks. Banxico's recent 1.6% full-year 2026 forecast upgrade provides upside context, but Q1 resolution hinges on forthcoming February IGAE and early April flash GDP data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
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